Having shared our key stats and modeling strategy for betting the 2022 PGA Championship, we’ll now begin sharing our best bets.
We begin as always with the derivative markets. This week, I have identified four markets — two top 10’s, one top-20 and one top-30 — that should prove the most valuable for bettors.
So, without further delay, here are my best derivative plays for the PGA Championship at Southern Hills Country Club.
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Best Bet #1 – Justin Thomas Top-10 Finish (+160)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Thomas cashed this exact market for us last week at the Byron Nelson and I believe he’s primed for a great finish at Southern Hills.
Not only does Thomas, the 2017 PGA champion, have three top-10 finishes in his last four starts — including a T8 at the Masters — but he rates out very well in my statistical model. He’s third overall in my 36-round model and first overall in my 24-round model.
Just in the latter projection, Thomas ranks inside the top-11 in all but one statistical category. Most notably, he’s third in the field in SG: approach and eighth in the field in birdies or better gained.
Plus, across his last 36 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards, Thomas is second in the field in strokes-gained: total. Specifically, he’s second in both SG: T2G and SG: approach while sitting fifth in SG: around the green.
Given his complete game, I would play Thomas at +135 or better for a top-10 finish.
Best Bet #2 – Jordan Spieth Top-10 Finish (+190)
Odds via BetMGM
Spieth can complete the career grand slam with a victory this week and I expect his swagger will propel him into a strong finish.
In his last two starts, Spieth has won and finished solo second at the RBC Heritage and Byron Nelson, respectively. Plus, although he finished 35th at the Valero and missed the cut at The Masters, Spieth has now gained at least 10.9 strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four events and at least 4.8 strokes on approach in three of four.
Plus, much like his pal JT, Spieth rates out very highly in my model. He’s fourth overall in both my 24- and 36-round models and third overall in my 50-round projection. Just in terms of the 24-round projection, Spieth is fourth overall in SG: approach, first overall in SG: Par 4’s and fifth overall in birdies or better gained.
Add in that Spieth has previously shown himself to be a wizard around the greens and coming out of bunkers and I believe his short game will prove pivotal this week.
Although I’m unsure if he’ll lift the Wanamaker trophy come Sunday, I believe this price is an absolute steal and would play it at +170 or better.
Best Bet #3 – Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish (+150)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Although he’s coming off a surprising missed cut at the Byron Nelson, Zalatoris has a brilliant finishing record at the majors.
At the 2022 Masters, Zalatoris finished in a tie for sixth, which went down as his fourth top-10 finish in six career major starts and his fourth in his last five appearances. Plus, at last year’s PGA Championship — another beast of a setup at Kiawah — Zalatoris finished in a tie for eighth.
At the 2022 Masters, Zalatoris finished in a tie for sixth, which went down as his fourth top-10 finish in six career major starts and his fourth in his last five appearances. Plus, at last year’s PGA Championship — another beast of a setup at Kiawah — Zalatoris finished in a tie for eighth.
Further, Zalatoris rates out very highly in a number of my statistical models. He’s 12th overall in my 36-round model and 11th overall in my 24-round model. In terms of the latter projection, Zalatoris ranks ninth in the field in strokes-gained: approach and second overall in SG: Par 4’s. He’s also top-34 in both driving distance and strokes-gained: around the green.
Plus, in terms of his last 36 rounds on courses longer than 7,400 yards, Zalatoris is fifth in the field in SG: total.
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As a result, I believe this price is way out of wack and would take a shot with Zalatoris to finish top-20 at +110 or better.
Best Bet #4 – Keegan Bradley Top-30 Finish (+150)
Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook
Bradley is a longshot bet I genuinely believe could win this week, but I’ll settle for a top-30 finish instead.
If there’s one concern with Bradley’s game, it’s that he doesn’t possess much distance off the tee. Across his last 24 rounds, the 2011 PGA champion is 60th in the field in driving distance. But, that’s about the only concern for Bradley, who otherwise rates out very well in my model.
Across his last 24 rounds, Bradley is sixth overall in the field, ranking in the top-16 in four of six statistical measures. Most notably, he’s second in the field in SG: approach and 10th in SG: around the green. Moreover, Bradley is 15th in SG: total over his last 24 rounds on courses longer than 7,400 yards and fifth in the same metric over his last eight rounds.
Plus, he’s fared very well at recent PGA Championships, finishing 30th or better in two of his last three. Included in that trend is a T17 at the 2021 PGA Championship, another lengthy setup that should help quell concerns over Bradley’s distance.
Lastly, Bradley has posted a finish of 30th or better in five of his last seven events on tour and a top-10 finish in three of his last four. For all those reasons, I’d back Bradley in this market at +130 or better.