Premier League odds, predictions: Brighton among best match day bets

Only two full matchdays remain in the 2021-22 English Premier League campaign, but there are still plenty of intriguing storylines.

None are bigger than the respective chases for the title and final Champions League position. Entering this weekend, Manchester City owns a three-point advantage over Liverpool at the top, while Tottenham sits only a point behind rival Arsenal for fourth-place.

With that established, let’s now turn our attention to best bets for the weekend — one side and one moneyline parlay that I believe provide the most value.

Pick #1 – Brighton & Hove Albion Draw, No Bet (-115) vs. Leeds United

Odds via BetMGM

Leeds United is in the midst of a relegation fight while Brighton is comfortably mid-table, but we personally power-rate the Seagulls higher.

Manager Graham Potter’s side has only dropped all three points once in its last seven fixtures and has won five of its last six against non-Manchester City opponents on expected goals. Further, in those same six fixtures against teams not named Manchester City, Brighton has created 1.8 expected goals per 90 minutes and its defense kept all but one side (Arsenal) under one expected goal.

This is also a Brighton side that dominated the reverse fixture against Leeds. Although the final score was 0-0, Brighton won the match on expected goals 2.59-0.9 and created two big scoring chances against zero for the Leeds attack, per fotmob.com.

That also represents the third straight victory on expected goals for Brighton against Leeds, which has surrendered at least 1.3 expected goals in all three meetings against the Seagulls.

Given Leeds will be without a key piece in defender Luke Ayling (suspension), I have little faith a Leeds defense that has conceded 1.38 xG/90 minutes in its last five against non-top four opposition will contain this Brighton attack.

For those reasons, I’d play Brighton’s draw, no bet line all the way up to -130.

Pick #2 – Moneyline Parlay: Tottenham and Manchester City (-117)

Odds via BetMGM

Sometimes the obvious plays can be the best ones and I believe that’s definitely the case here.

We’ll begin with Tottenham, who with a win would move ahead of Arsenal before the Gunners play on Monday. Its fixture against Burnley at home shapes up as a good revenge spot at Tottenham’s preferred venue. At Turf Moor, Tottenham lost 1-0 and 1.55-0.96 on expected goals, per fotmob.com.

But before that result, Spurs won three straight and four of the last five against the Clarets, which finds itself just outside the relegation zone on goal difference. Plus, although Burnley is 0-3-2 (W-L-D) at the Big Six this season, it has lost all five fixtures by at least 0.8 expected goals.

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As for Manchester City, it arrives at its fixture against West Ham United in world-class form. The Cityzens have won five straight matches by three goals and have only seen one of those five sides hold it under 2.75 expected goals.

It also dominated the reverse fixture at the Etihad against the Hammers, winning 2-1 and 2.43-0.22 on expected goals. It also generated four big scoring chances against zero for West Ham.

Although manager David Moyes’s side is trying to hang out to the Europa Conference League spot, City will be too strong for it even at home.