In its the first meeting with Wolverhampton at the Etihad, Manchester City absolutely dominated the match but came away with only a 1-0 victory.
However, manager Pep Guardiola’s side held 71 percent possession and created 3.6 expected goals on 24 total shots. Additionally, it also generated three big scoring chances.
This is a great sell-high spot on the Wolves, who drew 2-2 with Chelsea over the weekend.
However, in the three matches prior, Wolverhampton created only 1.6 combined expected goals. Its normally reliable defense has also struggled of late as Wolverhampton has allowed 1.98 expected goals per 90 minutes over its last six matches.
Plus, through two matches against Manchester City and Liverpool, the Wolves has created only 0.4 expected goals and has failed to score in each. The Wolves are also due for some HEAVY negative regression as they enter this fixture with a +1 goal differential on a -19 expected goal difference (-1 vs. -9.1 at home).
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For those reasons, my best bet for the fixture is Manchester City to Win to Nil. I’m unsure if City gets margin, but don’t expect Wolves’ attack to create much here.
The play: Manchester City to Win to Nil (-115)