As the season nears its conclusion, the English Premier League will feature five games in the midweek.
None are bigger than Thursday’s meeting at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium between Tottenham and Arsenal as the sides compete for the final Champions League spot.
Other noteworthy matches include Manchester City traveling to Wolverhampton Wanderers and Chelsea paying a visit to Leeds United.
But where should bettors look across the midweek slate? Without further delay, here are my best bets across all five fixtures.
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Best Bet #1 – Watford/Everton Both Teams to Score (-125)
The reverse fixture at Goodison Park featured pure chaos — Watford won 5-2 win after scoring three times in the last 10 minutes — and I expect more of the same here.
Watford has officially been relegated to the Championship so I don’t expect it’ll show up 100% motivated here. Plus, its defense has been shambolic of late, even against sub-par opposition. In its last five fixtures against sides not named Manchester City or Liverpool, Watford has conceded at least one xG in all five, per fbref.com.
Additionally, the reverse fixture saw it allow 2.3 expected goals to Everton’s attack, which has improved of late. The Toffees attack has generated 2.8 expected goals over its last two fixtures and at least one expected goal in four of its last six against bottom-half opposition.
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On the flip-side, Watford’s attack has actually proven somewhat reliable at Vicarage Road. It has now generated at least one expected goal in five straight and six of its last seven home fixtures and has only failed to score in seven of 17 home fixtures.
Finally, this prop has cashed in two straight and four of the last seven EPL meetings, an added benefit to betting against both defenses here.
Best Bet #2 – Tottenham 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (-115) vs. Arsenal
This shapes up as a great discount on Tottenham considering its trends in this market.
Since appointing Antonio Conte, Spurs have managed at least one first-half tally in nine of its last 12 home fixtures and 16 of its last 25 Premier League fixtures.
On the flip-side, Arsenal’s road defense has left a lot to be desired, particularly against strong offenses. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has conceded a first-half tally in five straight against the league’s ten-best offenses and seven of its last eight. Even if you include the other nine matches against bottom-half offenses, Arsenal has conceded in the opening frame in four straight and nine of 17 away from the Emirates.
Further, Tottenham’s offenses is far superior at home. Entering this fixture, Spurs has generated 1.8 xG/90 minutes at home vs. 1.43 xG/90 minutes on the road. It also has a history of strong starts at home against Arsenal as it has scored in two straight opening halves.
For those reasons, I would personally play this market all the way up to -130.