After the first two games, the Phoenix Suns looked like absolute juggernauts. They were painfully efficient, to the point where they averaged over 60 percent from inside the three-point line.
However, the past two games have seen the Suns’ two-point field goal percentage crater down to 47.7 percent. There could be a lot of explanations for this, one of which is the poor play of Chris Paul.
After scoring 28 points in Game 2, his team winning by 20 points, Paul scored just 12 and five points in Games 3 and 4.
Devin Booker was ready to take the lead on offense, but is that enough to stop the hot-shooting Mavericks? Dallas and Co. are more than willing to play the variance game by letting Doncic run wild on offense and dish the ball out to the corner for open three-pointers.
Frankly, this strategy is bad news for Phoenix. Their best bet is to let Luka cook on offense and stop letting guys like Jalen Brunson, Reggie Bullock, and Dorian Finney-Smith get hot.
Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: DAL +5.5 (-105) vs. PHO -5.5 (-115)
Moneyline: DAL +195 vs. PHO -250
Total: Over 213.5 (-110) | Under 213.5 (-110)
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Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 prediction
As stated above, the Mavericks are just firing three-pointers at an incredible rate. In Game 4, the Mavericks shot 20-44 from beyond the arc, a 45.5% hit rate.
Moreover, the Mavericks only scored 18 field goals from inside the three-point line. Their percentage on them was also terrible — 18-41 (43.9%) — so the Mavericks are wise to continue shooting the ball from outside.
The Suns’ strategy on defense will surely tell us a lot about whether they will win. However, their offensive game plan is of far more interest to me from a betting perspective. Naturally, this all starts with their star point guard, Chris Paul.
Paul fouled out of Game 4 on a questionable sixth foul call by NBA referee Kane Fitzgerald. The variance of things like officiating can obviously go a long way to deciding outcomes of games. Conventional wisdom says that this would swing back in favor of Phoenix in Game 5.
Per the NBA, Tuesday night’s NBA referee’s for Game 5 will be David Guthrie, Sean Wright, Tom Washington, and Tre Maddox.
In terms of a prediction for this game, the odds clearly expect the Suns to win. However, I am not as bullish on laying any hefty points in Phoenix. Instead, I am only targeting player props for Tuesday night’s game.
Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 bet: Underdog or pass
NBA player prop bets for Tuesday
Chris Paul 2+ 3’s made +154 | 3+ +550 (FanDuel)
Paul has been brutal in his last two games. However, he has still cashed this prop in two of four games and probably would have hit it last time out had he not been ejected. At +152, his 2+ 3’s made prop is extremely tasty to me.
Paul to hit 3+ is +550, but he has not topped that number since Game 1 against the Pelicans, so tread lightly there. Paul should play significantly better the rest of the series.
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Luka Doncic 40+ points +420 (FanDuel)
I bet this prop in Game 1 and cashed it pretty easily when it was +640. That line was off and it was immediately corrected to +300. Since then, Doncic has not gone over 40 points in a game this series, causing the line to move. However, this game would profile as a similar game to Game 1 where Doncic is uber-aggressive to ease the burden from his role-playing teammates.
The only thing that really worries me is referees making up for past mistakes and putting Doncic in foul trouble.
NBA picks record since 3/7 — 13-19 (+9.675 units)