Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers tips off tonight at 7:30 PM ET. Our NBA expert provides his predictions and picks for tonight’s clash, with the series currently tied at 2-2.
Philadelphia bounced back in a major way when the series shifted back to the Wells Fargo Center, as it tied the series at two apiece after dropping the first two games in Miami.
The series now shifts back to the Sunshine State as it becomes a best-of-three matchup, with a Game 7 potentially set for Sunday at FTX Arena. The Heat entered the playoffs as the No. 1 seed, and expect them to up the ante tonight.
Heat vs. 76ers Predictions
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Heat vs. 76ers Game 5 Picks: The Analysis
Turning it up
A pair of dominant performances at home saw the Heat race to a 2-0 series lead, but they struggled when traveling to the City of Brotherly Love. A key factor in that downfall was their three-point shooting. Miami, who went 26-for-63 from downtown in Games 1 and 2, was not on the same wavelength from beyond the arc as it shot a woeful 14-for-65 in the last two games.
Joel Embiid’s return to action for the 76ers had a clear impact on the series, despite not being fully healthy. Embiid scored 24 points and 11 rebounds in Game 4, but more importantly left more freedom for teammate James Harden, who had arguably one of his best games as a member of the 76ers. The Beard recorded his second 30+ point game with the Sixers, finishing with 31 points, nine assists and seven rebounds.
Even with Embiid now available for the first time on road, I’m laying the points with the Heat here. Miami has shown its strength at home throughout the regular season, and there’s no way they shoot as poorly as they have in the last two games. The 76ers have the momentum, but entering a packed out stadium, their progress will come to a halt.
The Sixers are also 2-8 against the spread in their last two road games and have not covered in four of their last 5 games as a road underdog.
The Pick: Miami Heat (-3.5) to cover @ -110 via BetMGM
All-star shootout
Through four games, the total has been a roller coaster in this series. Games 1 and 3 hit the under by at least 12 points, while the total went over by 13 or more points in Games 2 and 4. There hasn’t been any real consistency so far which way the game will go beforehand.
While the current trend would say go under here, I’m going over. Embiid and Heat guard Kyle Lowry will both suit up; neither of them did in the first two games in Miami. The over is 7-3 in the 76ers’ last 10 games as an underdog. Coincidentally, the over has hit in six straight Tuesday games for Philadelphia.
With both sides having nearly healthy rosters for the first time this series, this total looks to be going over the current number by double digits for the third time and second straight game in a row.
The Pick: Total Points: Over 209.5 @ -110 via BetMGM
Heat vs 76ers Odds from BetMGM
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total Points: 209.5 |
| Miami Heat | -167 | (-3.5) -110 | Over -110 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | +140 | (+3.5) -110 | Under -110 |