What could’ve been had Ja Morant been eligible for this game.
Perhaps this series is over in short order now that Ja Morant is likely out for at least Game 4 due to a knee injury where Jordan Poole “broke the code,” according to Morant.
Currently, it is unknown whether Morant will play in Game 5 but a bad loss in Game 4 might just let Morant sit on the sidelines if the injury is severe. The Grizzlies are yet to release all of the details regarding the injury.
Regardless, the absence of Morant leaves us plenty of betting opportunities for Game 4. None of which will include a prediction of the Grizzlies coming out victorious in this game. A bet on the spread is one thing but a moneyline bet on the Grizzlies without Morant is a foolish endeavor, to say the least.
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Game 4 odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: MEM +10.5 (-110) vs. GSW -10.5 (-100)
Moneyline: MEM (+400) vs. GSW (-550)
Total: Over 223.5 (-105) | Under 223.5 (-115)
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Grizzlies vs. Warriors Game 4 prediction and stats
This game is going to be next to impossible for the Grizzlies to really win. In fact, their best chance of making this close is to go ultra-small and play the variance game with 3-point shots.
Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks should be the best scorers for the Grizzlies and I have a few player prop bets for them.
Some stats of these players without Ja Morant courtesy of StatMuse…
Dillon Brooks without Ja Morant stats
- 34 games, averaging — 17.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 28.2 minutes
- Two 30+ point games (12/19/2021, 4/1/2022)
- ONE game with three 3-pointers made this season without Morant in the lineup.
Desmond Bane without Ja Morant stats
- 23 games, averaging — 19 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists 28.9 minutes
- One 30+ point game (3/24)
- 3.3 three-pointers made per game
Jaren Jackson Jr. stats without Ja Morant
- 27 games, averaging — 20 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1.5 assists
- 2.2 threes made per game
- Two 30+ point games (none since 2019)
A lot to unpack here but to make it short and sweet, Brooks is going to be the primary ball-handler. He will drive the lane and kick out to shooters and the hope is going to be that they get hot.
He does take slightly more 3’s when Morant is out compared to when he plays (5.4 attempts when he’s out compared to 4.5 when he’s active).
For these reasons, I will be taking several player prop bets for Monday…
Player prop bets for Monday’s Grizzlies vs. Warriors
Odds are provided by FanDuel unless otherwise stated and were accurate at the time of writing
Brooks 6+ assists +750
Brooks has hit this number without Morant in four games this year including against the Suns on April 1st. In a big Game 4, usage rates should be through the roof.
Dillon Brooks 25+ points +350
Same argument as below, significantly higher usage rates with Morant out should be expected. Brooks should get around 40 minutes after missing Game 3.
Desmond Bane ‘over’ 18.5 points -115 (DraftKings)
Always with a green light, Bane is over this number in seven of nine games without Morant. Fade the narrative that he can’t handle the playoffs. He will get enough shots to fill it up.
Jarren Jackson Jr. 20+ points +200
This one is tough because we aren’t really sure how many minutes the Grizzlies give him, he’s been in the high 20s and low 30s. However, he’s one of their better players and can shoot. If they are smart they will use him to spread the floor and hit a few three-pointers along the way,.