The Florida Panthers have their backs up against the wall. Trailing Washington, 2-1, in their best-of-7 series, the Cats are in a pressure-packed spot on Monday night. To call it a must-win is probably a little too dramatic, but to see the Presidents’ Trophy winners go down 3-1 in a playoff series against a team that was supposed to be cannon fodder for them would be a really tough spot.
Especially since Washington has been the better team for the lion’s share of this series.
Panthers vs. Capitals Game 4 odds
Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook
Spread: FLA -1.5 (+140) vs. WAS +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: FLA (-200) vs. WAS (+170)
Total: Over 6.5 (-130) | Under 6.5 (+110)
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Panthers vs. Capitals Game 4 prediction
Not only does the eye test show you that the Caps are doing exactly what they need to in order to give themselves a chance against the high-octane Panthers, but the numbers show it, too. Through three games, the Panthers have only created 28 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5, while the Capitals have generated 25 for themselves.
Florida finished the season as the best team in the league at creating quality scoring chances, especially in transition, but Washington is pot-committed to grinding the Cats down in the neutral zone and it’s paying off. The Caps have frustrated the Panthers and are forcing them into mistakes, allowing Washington to go the other way with its clinical, opportunistic offense.
Whether the Capitals can keep this up over seven games is a good question, but that will only come into play if Florida can find a way to extend this series by winning one of the next two games. And despite being the deeper, more talented team, the Cats are not playing well enough to feel confident in that notion.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs often provide bettors with the opportunity to lock in value by betting against the narrative and that appears to be the situation for Game 4. It may be hard to fathom the Panthers going down 3-1 to the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, but it’s pretty clear that the Capitals are a tricky matchup for a team that just wants to go North-South.
There’s also the question of how Florida’s interim coach Andrew Brunette will be able to cope with the first adversity he’s faced since he took over for Joel Quenneville back in October. The Panthers were already off and running by the time Quenneville was let go, so Brunette never really had to adjust the playing style for a team that ran roughshod through the league all season. Now, he has to go up against an experienced coach, Peter Laviolette, who has his team pulling in the same direction.
The market has adjusted from Game 3, when the Caps closed at +165, but all signs point to that movement being warranted, especially if Ilya Samsonov has found his form in Washington’s goal.
Panthers vs. Capitals bet: Washington Capitals +155 or better (+158 on FanDuel)