Where does a record-setting arm that may be without true collegiate precedent land in the 2022 MLB Draft?
There is plenty of curiosity among the industry. Though Ben Joyce likely will be drafted high, he probably will not be selected within the top few picks.
Joyce will be perhaps among the most intriguing prospects in July’s draft, a righty from Tennessee who has gained national attention since throwing a 105.5-mph fastball on Sunday, the fastest recorded pitch in college baseball history. He just missed the all-time MLB mark of 105.8 mph, set by Aroldis Chapman, and he broke a college record that he himself had set in March, when his four-seamer registered 104 mph.
The velocity is real for the redshirt junior, who has come back stronger from October 2020 Tommy John surgery and has struck out 38 in 21 innings. But scouts want to see more from a pitcher who did not throw an inning last year as he rehabbed his elbow.
The Post queried three scouting directors, all of whom were impressed by the arm but also had several questions, including: Tennessee’s use of Joyce, who has pitched back-to-back days just once, and in that case a single out was required in both games; why an arm that can touch 105 mph is not closing games; why an arm that can touch 105 mph has not pitched against some of Tennessee’s top competition, including an early-April, three-game series against Vanderbilt; a lack of overall innings; and why a pitcher with his velocity has been squared up as much as he has.
One of the officials, all of whom were granted anonymity, thought Joyce would be a first- or second-round pick. The other two thought the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Joyce would be a second- or third-round pick, not because of questions about his arsenal but because of the ceilings on college relievers. One director compared college relievers with NFL running backs, who can be found later in drafts and often burn out quicker.
Joyce’s fastball “is pretty consistent 99-103 [mph],” one of the executives said. “But there is more of a stigma of taking a reliever in the first round, and there is a lot of time that he is being used in lower-level situations.”
Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello has told reporters that Joyce could be stretched out, and in his record-setting performance Sunday in the win over Auburn, he threw four shutout innings. His previous season-high was two innings pitched.
If the Volunteers allow him to continue to lengthen and he does so successfully, his draft stock would be improved.
“He’s big and throws 105, but I would look at the innings pitched, especially the key innings pitched and how many times he even starts and finishes an inning. He’s a hard guy to scout,” one of the officials said. “He looks the part. The fastball is real. But hitters got a good swing on him a lot.”
Joyce, from Knoxville, pairs his fastball with a mid-80s slider, which often induces big whiffs from hitters gearing up for the heat. One of the scouts said the pitch can be devastating, but other times flat, and he needs to work on its consistency. Joyce also flashes a changeup and has pitched to a 0.86 ERA this season.
There might not be a true analogue for Joyce’s arm, but he might follow the professional arc of Garrett Crochet, another Volunteer with triple-digit heat. The White Sox made the lefty the 11th-overall pick in the 2020 first-year player draft, and three months later Crochet was pitching in the majors. If Joyce remains a reliever used in bursts, he could be rushed to the majors.
Crochet, who is missing this season due to Tommy John surgery, is seen as a possible future starter, which boosted his value. Teams weighing Joyce’s draft stock will be wondering whether there is a rotation upside of a collegiate arm like no other.
