An inside look at how the 148th Kentucky Derby will shape up:
1. Mo Donegal (10-1)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Current Form: Ran evenly for third behind White Abarrio in the shorter Holy Bull, then rode the rail to victory in the Wood Memorial.
Worth a Wager: Finished full of run after saving ground in the Wood. Draws rail again. Figure top jock Irad Ortiz will have him midpack and then hope for the traffic to break up. We figure he’s 10th.
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2. Happy Jack (30-1)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Current Form: Overachiever finished a distant third at odds of 26-1 in both the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby won by Taiba.
Worth a Wager: Trainer Doug O’Neill has said he’s Happy with Jack’s progress, but he may be happy if he can pass some tired horses and get a share. 17th.
3. Epicenter (7-2)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Current Form: Made it look easy winning the Risen Star (defeating Zandon), then Louisiana Derby under a hand ride.
Worth a Wager: Believe we haven’t seen his best yet. Also believe he will be the post-time favorite. Good luck to Steve (0 for 23) Asmussen. Big chance, no value. Fifth.
4. Summer is Tomorrow (30-1)
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Current Form: Has won twice from seven starts, all at Meydan in Dubai. Ran second to Crown Pride in the UAE Derby before shipping.
Worth a Wager: If you don’t like the winner of the UAE Derby chances are you won’t be taking a chance on the runnerup. Not last, 19th.
5. Smile Happy (20-1)
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Current Form: A winter book favorite after winning the Kentucky Juvenile, he ran second to Epicenter and Zandon in the Risen Star and Blue Grass, respectivley.
Worth a Wager: Can’t toss him. Got beat less than two lengths by the two Derby co-faves. This race is loaded. We will put him eighth.
6. Messier (8-1)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Current Form: Crushed the competition by 15 lengths in a Grade 3. Looked like he had the Santa Derby won before upstart Taiba skated by midstretch.
Worth a Wager: Canadian-bred Captain lit the lamp then got lit up by Taiba. Tim Yakteen trains for the banned Bob Baffert. May take more money than Taiba. Third.
7. Crown Pride (20-1)
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Trainer: Koichi Shintani
Current Form: Japanese-bred UAE Derby winner makes his U.S. debut having won three of four. One of two (Epicenter) that are proven at the Derby distance.
Worth a Wager: Shipper’s style suggests he will have to outkick some accomplished U.S. stretch runners. Working well over the Churchill oval. Midpack, 11th.
8. Charge It (20-1)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Current Form: Pletcher gave him a shot in the Florida Derby after his open-length maiden breaker. Finished second a length back of White Abarrio.
Worth a Wager: One of many who can win. Didn’t like the way he lugged in while in the Florida Derby stretch. Never throw out a Luis Saez ridden horse. Seventh.
9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Current Form: Switch hitter. A two-time turf winner, he won his last pair on the synthetics at Turfway Park, latest in the Jeff Ruby.
Worth a Wager: Versatile colt will be a “Bombs Away” price even though he won twice at Turfway. Soundly defeated by White Abarrio on the dirt. Tiz is 12th.
10. Zandon (3-1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Chad Brown
Current Form: Defeated by Epicenter in the Risen Star but became the Derby M/L favorite after a determined rally from last of 11 to win the Blue Grass.
Worth a Wager: Ready for rematch. Couldn’t catch Epicenter but caught all 10 rivals at Keeneland. No value and there is always traffic running for the roses. Sixth.
11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1)
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Current Form: Reported home fourth in the Risen Star, then third in the Louisiana Derby. Both races were won by Epicenter.
Worth a Wager: Made the cut by holding for third in Louisiana. Jersey Joe Bravo may get him involved early to ensure a swift pace for Pletcher’s Mo Donegal. Fades, 13th.
12. Taiba (12-1)
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Current Form: Mr. Perfect. He’s 2 for 2 after running by a softened-up Messier in the Santa Anita Derby. Drew triple-digit figs both starts.
Worth a Wager: Shades of Justify? Unraced as a juvenile, he picked up the pieces after Messier dueled with Forbidden Kingdom. Love the price. Putting him second.
13. Simplification (20-1)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Current Form: Labeled a major player after winning the Fountain of Youth but expectations simmered after he finished third to White Abarrio in the Florida Derby.
Worth a Wager: Indicated he may want no part of the required 1 1/4 miles after shortening his stride. His sire, appropriately, is Not This Time. A leg-weary ninth.
14. Barber Road (30-1)
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Trainer: John Ortiz
Current Form: Got beat by a hard-fought neck by Un Ojo in the Rebel. Stayed at Oaklawn and placed second to Cyberknife in the Arkansas Derby.
Worth a Wager: No wins during his 3-year-old campaign but always shows up, hitting the board in each. Well, maybe not today. 14th.
15. White Abarrio (10-1)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Saffie Joseph
Current Form: The gray has been great. Top-tier contender after winning the Holy Bull, then Florida Derby from just off the pace.
Worth a Wager: Trainer Saffie Joseph’s great White chewed up the competition twice at Gulfstream. Settles midpack down the backstretch, takes aim, lands fourth.
16. Cyberknife (20-1)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current Form: Knifed through traffic to win the Arkansas Derby. Brad Cox’s colt has won two in a row and is peaking at the right time.
Worth a Wager: Has proven he can maneuver through tight quarters, a key component in the crowded field of 20. He’s by Gun Runner, so he’s bred to go long at a long price. Winner.
17. Classic Causeway (30-1)
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Current Form: Beat a modest bunch, gate to wire in the Tampa Bay Derby, but stopped badly after taking on a better group in the Florida Derby.
Worth a Wager: Liked him in the Florida Derby, don’t like him as much now. Not sure he wants 10 furlongs. Irad Ortiz came off to ride Mo Donegal. 15th.
18. Tawny PortA (30-1)
Jockey: Ricardo Santana
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current Form: Just in time. Made it to the dance after winning the final prep, the Lexington three weeks ago. Second to Tiz The Bomb in Jeff Ruby previously.
Worth a Wager: Sneaked into the field through the back door. Playing with the big boys again. Connections (Cox/Santana) are there, he won’t be. 18th.
19. Zozos (20-1)
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current Form: Took a 2 for 2 record to the Louisiana Derby and finished a solid second to Epicenter after setting the pace.
Worth a Wager: Brad Cox’s trio drew posts 16, 18 and 19. Speed from the outside can help stable-mate Cyberknife. Better in summer classics. For now, 16th.
20. Ethereal Road (30-1)
Jockey: Luis Contreras
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
Current Form: It isn’t good. Has won once from seven starts. Finished up the track in the Blue Grass and fourth behind Tawny Port in the Lexington.
Worth a Wager: Made it to the dance when Un Ojo dropped out. With Baffert banned it will be good to see D. Wayne Lukas around. Last of 20.
