Less than 24 hours seperates golf bettors from the start of the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship.
But, before it gets underway, we have time for one last set of plays. Yesterday it was all about the derivative bets, but today we’re focusing on our favorite matchup bets.
Although I was unable to find underdogs that I had rated as favorites like last week, I settled on the following two matchup plays as providing bettors the best overall value.
So, without further delay, here are my two best matchup bets for the Wells Fargo. Both lines come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook with odds reflective at time of writing.
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Best Bet #1 – Russell Henley (-110) over Matt Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick has enjoyed a nice start to 2022, but Henley is simply a wizard on short courses.
The former Georgia Bulldog arrives at the Wells Fargo second in my 24-round model and first in my 36-round projections. Just in the latter model, Henley ranks no worse than 17th in any of the six individual categories and no worse than fourth in any of the four most-emphasized statistics.
Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick arrives at TPC Potomac 73rd overall in my 36-round model and 49th overall in the 24-round output. Plus, in his last appearance at a course under 7,200 yards (the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town), Fitzpatrick missed the cut.
Of further concern with Fitzpatrick will be his underlying metrics on Par 70’s under 7,200 yards. Across his last 50 rounds on qualifying courses, Fitzpatrick is 125th in the field in strokes-gained: tee-to-green and 126th in strokes-gained: approach. As for Henley, he ranks fourth and second, respectively, in those categories across his last 50 rounds. Even if you remove the Par 70 qualifier from consideration, Fitzpatrick is still 42nd and 55th in those categories while Henley is first in both over the last 50 rounds.
Based on my modeling, I would have Henley projected closer to -130, so I’m happy to back him at -110.
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Best Bet #2 – C.T. Pan (-130) over Matthias Schwab
These two players are much closer together in my models, but Pan brings a few key advantages to the table.
Pan ranks out 29th in my 24-round model, a 14-spot advantage over Schwab’s 43rd-place ranking in the field, but he’s been far better in two key categories. Across his last 24 rounds, Pan ranks 15th in the field in SG: approach and 57th in good drives gained. On the flip-side, Schwab is 62nd in the field in SG: approach and 86th in good drives gained.
In terms of their respective SG: T2G numbers, Pan is 26th in the field over his last 50 rounds while Schwab is 47th overall in the field on qualifying courses. Just over their last 12 rounds, Pan is 10th in the field while Schwab ranks 29th in SG: T2G on courses under 7200 yards.
The other added bonus here – Pan is a much more comfortable putter on Bentgrass greens. Although he’s only gaining only .007 strokes/round on the surface, that number looks a lot better when you consider Schwab is losing nearly 0.75 strokes/round on Bentgrass greens.
Lastly, Pan was T17 at the 2018 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac whereas Schwab is making his debut at this track.
Although Schwab has three top-10’s in his last six events, he was 59th at the RBC Heritage – a similar course to TPC Potomac – whereas Pan was 42nd. For those reasons, I would play Pan up to -140.