Liverpool vs. Villareal, Real Madrid vs. Man City: Champions League predictions

By Wednesday’s conclusion, the two Champions League finalists will have been decided. And should results hold, we’ll be in for a second consecutive all-English final.

Manchester City brings a 4-3 advantage to the Bernabeu after a thrilling victory over Real Madrid in the first leg. Meanwhile, Liverpool arrives in Villarreal with a 2-0 lead following the first leg at Anfield.

With no clear motivation for the favorites, I’m staying away from all sides in this match. But, in terms of my best bets, there are a few markets where I see the value.

So, let’s dive into my best bets for the second leg of the Champions League semifinals.

Best Bet #1 – Liverpool/Villarreal Same Game Parlay: first-half Under 1.5, full-game Under 3.5 (-121)

Odds provided by BetMGM

I recognize that Villarreal will likely bring a higher sense of urgency to its home leg, but I still believe this fixture proves a low-scoring one.

Should Liverpool’s attack – which generated 1.64 expected goals in the first leg, including 0.8 in the opening frame – come out and score the opening goal, I expect that will deflate a lot of Villarreal’s motivation. Should that transpire, I believe Liverpool, which doesn’t need to win and faces a weekend fixture against Tottenham, will simply sit back and see out the match.

On the flip-side, Villarreal’s attack has been wildly impressive without talisman Gerard Moreno. Not only did it create only 0.2 expected goals at Anfield, but it also generated only 1.6 over the weekend against Deportivo Alaves, which is easily one of the worst teams in Spain.

It’s also worth noting that, across its last three Champions League fixtures, the Yellow Submarine has created only 2.2 TOTAL expected goals, per fbref.com.

But, this is also a Villarreal defense that has largely held up in the knockout rounds. Across its last five UCL fixtures, manager Unai Emery’s side has seen only a single fixture clear this total on expected goals with three straight and four of five staying under this number in reality.

I question whether Villarreal can even get on the board against a strong Liverpool defense, but either way, expect this match to feature only a goal or two.

Best Bet #2 – Manchester City Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-135) vs. Real Madrid

In case you haven’t noticed, Real Madrid’s defense is awful. Also, it was incredibly fortunate not to concede six at the Etihad.

The first leg saw host City create 2.7 expected goals and six big scoring chances on 16 total shots, per fotmob.com. Additionally, City managed 28 touches in Real’s attacking penalty area and 265 attacking third touches, both above-average marks for City in the knockout round.

But for as good as City’s attack was in the opening leg, this bet is more against Real Madrid than it is on Manchester City. Through five UCL knockout round fixtures, Los Blancos have yet to keep a clean sheet and are allowing north of 1.8 expected goals per 90 minutes. Just in its last three fixtures – two legs against Chelsea, one against City – it’s allowing 1.83 xGA/90 minutes, per fbref.com.

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There’s also the small matter of game state. As a result of the first leg, Real have no choice but to go for it at the Bernabeu. That will leave its already lackluster defense exposed to a City counter that, although doesn’t appear very often, is absolutely lethal. In the limited amount of time City has played from behind this season, it is creating 2.03 xG/90 minutes, per understat.com.

Although the scoreline doesn’t say it’s behind, I believe City will arrive with that mentality. Lastly, as an added bonus, City has cleared this benchmark in three straight meetings with Real Madrid and have created at least two expected goals in all three as well.

For those reasons, play this market up to -150. At the time of writing, FanDuel has this line set at -134.