Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: NHL playoffs series prediction, odds, picks

The two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning will begin the postseason as a slight underdog against the Toronto Maple Leafs. And despite the noise surrounding this matchup — the Lightning’s prowess in the playoffs and Toronto’s inability to win a series, no matter the opponent — it’s hard to argue that the Buds aren’t deserving favorites in this matchup.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL playoffs series odds

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Lightning +110 vs. Maple Leafs -130

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs series prediction

No matter how you shake it, the Maple Leafs were a better team than the Lightning this season. Not only did Toronto finish five points and eight goals ahead of the Bolts in the standings, but the Buds also finished inside the top-5 in terms of goals per game, expected goals rate, high-danger scoring chance percentage, and power-play percentage. There are ups and downs for every team across an 82-game season, but the Leafs were one of the circuit’s most consistent clubs in 2021-22. 

There are a lot of reasons to believe in this Leafs core against the Lightning. Toronto was the stronger 5-on-5 team, they had the better special teams throughout the season and Tampa Bay’s form did wane at times during the stretch run.

But overlook the Lightning at your own risk. Tampa Bay has played a ton of hockey since the NHL returned from its Covid-hiatus nearly 20 months ago, so it’s not all that surprising that the Bolts did seem to pace themselves, especially since they basically had a playoff spot wrapped up in December. 

So while the numbers will show that Toronto has been the stronger team, this is a series where you’ll need to rely on raw handicapping in addition to what the numbers tell you. And a lot of that handicapping boils down to this: How much stock should we put into Tampa’s pedestrian stretch at a point of the season where they were likely just waiting for the playoffs to start? 

Because from a matchup perspective, Tampa is one of the few teams in the NHL that can feel confident in their ability to match up with Toronto. 

A lot of Toronto’s success does hinge on how its high-end players perform. Auston Matthews is the Hart Trophy favorite and Mitchell Marner just posted a 97-point season in 72 games, but none of that will matter if Toronto’s dynamic duo goes quiet in another playoff series. And while it’s unlikely that the Lightning keep Matthews and Marner off the scoresheet entirely, they do have the horses needed to make life tough on Toronto’s best players.

While Matthews, Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and Michael Bunting (who is questionable for Game 1 and beyond) give Toronto an embarrassment of riches up front, those five players will see a ton of Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak over the course of this series. Outside of the goaltending, Cirelli could end up being the most important factor in this series, as he has the ability to slow down Toronto’s vaunted top line. 

Very few teams would reasonably stand a chance to keep Matthews, Marner and Co. in check, but Tampa Bay has a terrific shutdown center, a handful of defensive stalwarts and the best goalie in the world. Those are the ingredients you need to compete against the Leafs.

But Toronto’s defense should also provide a stern test for Tampa Bay’s elite players at the top of the lineup. The Leafs finished inside the top-10 in expected goals against and high-danger scoring chances conceded, so they shouldn’t be overrun by this dynamic attack. Toronto now has three pairs that can play a specific role, with Morgan Rielly playing in an easier role as the puck-mover, while TJ Brodie, Timothy Liljegren, Mark Giordano and Jake Muzzin will be assigned the tough minutes.

As with any best-of-7 series, the difference for this series will likely be the play of the goaltenders. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the best goaltender in the world for the past three years and even in a year where he didn’t get much attention still posted a .917 save percentage and a +17.6 GSAx. Vasilevskiy is clearly the A-side in this showdown, but just how much of an edge the Bolts have in goal is going to be the big question for this series.

Jack Campbell is the only NHL-level goaltender the Leafs have on their roster and he’s been Jekyll-and-Hyde this season. After a terrific start to the season, Campbell’s form plummeted throughout the winter until he ended up on injured reserve. Campbell has looked more stable since returning from injury, but he’ll need to provide above-average goaltending in a matchup this tight. Whether he can do that is a huge question mark.

In a series where the margin for error is quite thin, the Lightning’s edge in goal is likely the difference-maker. In a coin-flip matchup, the plus-money odds on Tampa provide value.

NHL playoffs series bet: Tampa Bay Lightning Series Moneyline +100 (BetMGM)