The Philadelphia 76ers won’t have Joel Embiid for at least the first two games of this series after he suffered an orbital bone fracture and concussion late in the fourth quarter of their 132-97 Game 6 closeout victory over the Toronto Raptors. Philadelphia was a whopping 11.5 points per 100 possessions better with Embiid on the floor in the regular season and was a +7.5 in its first-round series against the Raptors.
The Miami Heat are dealing with injuries of their own as they’ll miss Kyle Lowry with a hamstring strain, while six players are all listed as questionable for Game 1.
While I expect everyone except Lowry to play and none of these injuries match the impact of the absence of Embiid, I believe the market may have overcorrected here making the Heat eight-point favorites.
Much of this handicap requires the assumption of rational coaching, which is tough when Doc Rivers is the head coach. The 76ers do have some advantages though, which could help them potentially win Game 1. Most notably, the 76ers have the ability to go small and place four shooters around James Harden. The Heat give up a ton of 3s, ranking dead last in opponent frequency of 3-point field goal attempts (41.9 percent).
We’ve seen drastic improvements in volume and 3-point shooting percentage from Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Danny Green and Georges Niang since the Harden trade, and that will loom large here. While I have concerns about the 76ers ability to slow down the Heat offensively, I think they can score enough to make this a close game. I’ll play the 76ers +8 in addition to Harris over 17.5 points.
The plays: 76ers +7.5; Tobias Harris over 17.5 points