The fourth-to-last full matchday of the Premier League season is upon us, and this weekend features some meaningful fixtures.
While most neutrals won’t flock to it, a relegation six-pointer between Watford and Burnley has the biggest implications across the whole weekend. Elsewhere, Tottenham hosts Leicester City and Arsenal travels to West Ham as they continue their race for fourth.
But where should bettors be looking across the 10-match slate? Here are my two best bets across the whole weekend.
Best Bet #1 – Same-Game Parlay: Tottenham Hotspur Moneyline + Over 2.5 Goals (-115)
Even though it took two goals in the final two minutes of stoppage time for Spurs to defeat Leicester City at the King Power, it dominated the entire match.
Manager Antonio Conte’s side created 4.14 expected goals across the entirety of the match and, despite finding itself level at the halftime interval, won the first-half expected goal battle 2.66-0.59, per fotmob.com. It also managed 27 shots against the Leicester defense (a season high), 43 shot-creating actions (also a high) and 42 touches in the penalty area (tied for its second-highest output of the season), per fbref.com.
Now Tottenham gets to take all those positive trends and put them up against a Leicester City defense playing on short rest following a Thursday Europa Conference League fixture.
And put simply, Leicester has not performed well this season on short rest. In 19 Premier League fixtures this season playing on four or fewer days rest, Leicester is 7-6-6 (W-L-D). However, it is 7-11-1 (W-L-D) in those same matches based on expected goals.
Check Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites
- Download the best sports betting apps
Most alarmingly, the Leicester defense has conceded 1.52 expected goals against per 90 minutes in those 19 fixtures and has allowed all three Big Six sides it has faced to generate at least two expected goals.
Although Tottenham’s attack has been held goalless in two straight fixtures, this feels like a good buy-low spot on the Champions League chasers. I personally believe it’s capable of clearing this total on its own, but don’t discount a Leicester tally.
Best Bet #2 – Watford/Burnley Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
The last match between these two sides was nothing short of bland and, given the added importance, I expect this match will look similar.
The reverse fixture at Turf Moor saw a combined 2.2 expected goals — 1.21 for Watford, 0.99 for Burnley — and only a single big scoring chance between the two, per fotmob.com. Additionally, the sides combined for only 36 penalty area touches and seven shots on target, per fbref.com.
Plus, both defenses have actually held up somewhat well against bottom-half opposition. In Watford’s last five against such opposition, it is allowing only 1.16 expected goals per 90 minutes while Burnley has allowed 1.56 xG/90 in its last five against bottom-half sides. Although that latter metric could be slightly concerning, it’s worth noting Burnley has conceded only 1.35 xG/90 in seven matches against the bottom-five.
The other good news? Burnley has proved a very reliable road under side. Only six of its 16 road fixtures this season have seen three or more goals while 11 of 16 have seen under three combined expected goals. Plus, Burnley has generated the second-fewest road expected goals, a trend that should continue against a decent Watford home defense (1.13 xGA/90 in its last seven at Vicarage Road).
For all those reasons, I’d play this number up to -135 and think we could be in for another snoozer.