The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks tip off their second-round series in the Eastern Conference on Sunday. Oddsmakers at BetMGM are expecting Boston’s impressive start to the playoffs to continue. The Celtics are -200 to advance to the conference finals, while bettors can get the underdog Bucks at +165.
The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in Round 1 with their drubbing of the Brooklyn Nets. Boston has an implied probability of 61.87 percent to win the series based on the odds, but the odds that this series extends to six or seven games are both listed at +190 odds respectively.
The Celtics’ odds to win the NBA championship have shortened after their dominance over Brooklyn. Boston’s title odds were +750 before Round 1 and have shortened to +400 (4/1).
Jayson Tatum was the best player on the court in the Nets series, averaging 29.5 points and 7.3 assists. Don’t expect Tatum to slow down in the second round. In three games versus the Bucks this season, Tatum averaged over 31 points.
Jaylen Brown left late in the Game 4 win over the Nets and is dealing with hamstring tightness. Nevertheless, Brown is expected to play on Sunday. He’s a key cog in Boston’s offense and one of the team’s best defenders. Brown averaged 22.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.5 steals in Round 1.
The Celtics had the league’s best defensive rating during the regular season and that trend continued in the first round. Boston’s defense made life miserable for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Durant shot just 33 percent from the floor and 38 percent from beyond the arc, while Irving was held below 20 points in three of the four games.
As dominant as the Celtics have been, the Bucks have the best Net Rating (+13.8) of any team in the playoffs. That number is driven largely by their Defensive Rating (94.4), which is nearly 10 points per 100 possessions lower than the next closest team.
The Bucks will be shorthanded, though, and that could be the difference. Khris Middleton has a Grade 2 left knee sprain and is expected to miss the entire series — and potentially the conference finals if the Bucks were to advance.
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Stepping up in Middleton’s absence has been Grayson Allen. Allen came off the bench to pour in 11 3s in the three games without Middleton. He scored 22, 27 and 13 points.
Nevertheless, it’s been Wesley Matthews starting in Middleton’s place, and the Bucks will need both players to step up to advance past the Celtics. There will also be more pressure on reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo with Middleton sidelined.
The loss of Middleton has greatly impacted Milwaukee’s futures odds. The Bucks went from having the second-best odds to win the NBA title (+500) before the start of the playoffs to the fifth-best odds (+700) entering Round 2.
The Celtics have been a tough matchup for the Bucks even with Middleton in the lineup. Without him, Boston has a significant edge and that is represented in the odds. Milwaukee is much better defensively than Brooklyn but it won’t be enough. It’s Boston’s defense that will ultimately be the difference.
Look for the Celtics to advance to the Eastern Conference finals in five or six games.