Leeds United plays host to Premier League leaders Manchester City Saturday as it seeks to avenge its 7-0 defeat in the reverse fixture.
Leeds has shown some improvement under new manager Jesse Marsch. Since March 5, the Peacocks are 3-2-2 (W-L-D) and own a +0.5 expected goal differential.
But Leeds is a candidate for negative regression on both ends of the pitch. In its last three fixtures, Marsch’s side has scored four goals on 2.5 expected while conceding only once on 4.9 expected.
Visitors Manchester City also has posted a strong run of form since the beginning of March. In its last six Premier League matches, the defending champions are 4-0-2 and have notched at least 1.5 expected goals in five of six.
Its defense has posted strong underlying metrics, too, allowing just one opponent (Liverpool) to create at least one expected goal.
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Although Leeds has improved of late, I believe it’s City or nothing in this match. Through nine matches against the current bottom-five, City is a perfect 9-0-0 and has a +30 goal differential in those matches.
Manager Pep Guardiola’s side has also kept seven clean sheets. Even though City will be playing on short rest, I like the value you’re getting here.
The play: Manchester City to Win to Nil (+130)