NBA bettors have only two games to choose from on Wednesday’s board, but that hasn’t discouraged meaningful action.
All the information about to be presented is drawn from the Action Network PRO Report, which provides betting percentages and five “signals” — sharp money, big money, PRO systems, model edge and expert picks — that help distinguish certain plays.
Today, one side is triggering a majority of the above signals while two are receiving attention from sharp bettors.
So, before placing your wagers, consider the following trends as means of helping to refine the board.
Game #1 – Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 225.5) (GSW leads series 3-1)
The Warriors have a chance to close out its first-round series at home Wednesday, but the betting attention is going to the Nuggets.
We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the visiting Nuggets, which has received 41 percent of all spread bets against only 24 percent of the total spread handle. Additionally, the Nuggets have one other factor going in their favor: the model projections factor. According to Action Network NBA power ratings, the Nuggets’ spread should be closer to +6.4 against the Warriors, giving bettors two points of value.
But, the Warriors also have two signals going in their favor. By way of its percentages — 59 percent of bets, 76 percent of money — the Warriors trigger both the big money bets signal and an Action Network PRO system. That system — Playoffs: More Money on Favorites — has a 61 percent historical win rate and 19 percent return on investment.
In terms of the total, there are less meaningful signals going to either side. We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on under 225.5 points, which has received 39 percent of all bets and 37 percent of the handle.
PRO Report Conclusion
Sharps and our model say bet the Nuggets at +8.5
Big money and the PRO system say bet the Warriors at -8.5
Game #2 – Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks (-10, 219.5) (MIL leads series 3-1)
The Bucks also have a chance to close out the series Wednesday and, unlike the Warriors, bettors are giving them all the attention.
The Bucks opened as 10-point home favorites against the Bulls and have largely held steady at that number despite receiving both sharp action and big money bets. At this writing, the Bucks have received 59 percent of all spread bets against a whopping 88 percent of the money, the highest money percentage on the board today.
Plus, as a result of those percentages, the Bucks also trigger the same system (Playoffs: More Money on Favorites) as the Warriors do to trigger three signals in its favor.
Check Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites
- Download the best sports betting apps
Although the Bulls trigger zero signals, it’s worth noting there are good prices available on the visitors. Bettors looking to back the Bulls can find +12 and even +12.5 depending on where you shop.
As for the total, only one signal is going to either side. One of the Action Network’s top NBA experts is backing the under, which opened at 219.5 but has since ticked up to 220 at one East Coast book. In terms of the percentages, the under has received 71 percent of all bets against 82 percent of the total handle.
PRO Report Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Spread (-10)