Mexico Open best bets: Patrick Rodgers, Lanto Griffin provide value

Minimal time separates golf bettors from the start of the Mexico Open. But before the first tee ball is struck, it’s time to share one last set of picks.

Whereas Tuesday’s focus was our top derivative bets, today will be all about my favorite matchup bets for the tournament. I’ve identified the following two picks as holding the most value, both of which feature wrongful favorites, in my opinion.

So, without any hesitation, here are my best matchup bets for the Mexico Open.

Best Bet #1 – Patrick Rodgers (-108) over David Lipsky

Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

Rodgers is only a slight underdog in this matchup, but my modeling rates him ahead of Lipsky.

Across the last 36 rounds, the Stanford product sits 50th overall in my model while Lipsky comes in 90th in the same span. Plus, Rodgers is actually above average in my two most important categories: he’s 19th in driving distance over the last 36 rounds and 45th overall in SG: approach. Just over his last 24 rounds, Rodgers is 19th and 31st in the field, respectively, in those same two categories.

Although Lipsky owns some solid approach numbers over the last 24 rounds — he’s 33rd in the field in SG: approach for that model — there are other concerns to be had. Lipsky is outside the top-100 in the field in both driving distance and bogey avoidance and ranks 92nd in the field in opportunities gained over the last 24 qualifying rounds.

Plus, the other advantage Rodgers carries into this matchup is his putting record on Bermuda. In rounds on this surface, Rodgers is gaining 0.12 strokes/round on the field, while Lipsky is losing 0.15 strokes/round in rounds on Bermuda.

Lastly, even though Rodgers has missed the cut in four of his last seven events, he’s gained strokes on approach in five of those seven events. Lipsky, on the other hand, has only gained strokes on approach in two of his last seven despite making the cut in five of those events.

At a course where iron play is key, expect Rodgers to get the win in this matchup.

Check Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps

• Check out the best sports betting sites
• Download the best sports betting apps

Best Bet #2 – Lanto Griffin (+105) over Kevin Streelman

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

This is easily one of the biggest modeling discrepancies for me and I’m shocked Streelman is this big a favorite.

Over the last 24 rounds, Griffin shows up 13th overall in my model while Streelman arrives in Mexico 82nd overall in the 24-round model. The gap between the two gets even wider in my 36-round model as Griffin sits 10th overall while Streelman ranks out 92nd in that particular span.

The only way I see this going well for Streelman is if this event plays much harder than I expect. To his credit, Streelman is 11th in the field in bogey avoidance over the last 36 rounds. However, he’s outside the top-100 in opportunities gained and is 120th in the field in proximity: 175-200 yards.

On the flip-side, Griffin is seventh in the field in strokes-gained: approach, 10th in opportunities gained and 40th overall in proximity: 175-200 yards. Additionally, Griffin is 28th in the field in SG: total across his last 36 rounds on 7400+ yard courses while Streelman in 42nd in the same category.

Finally, the last edge Griffin owns here is in past results on correlated courses. For example, Griffin recorded a 16th-placed finish at Pebble Beach while Streelman missed the cut. Griffin also had the edge at another coastal course, finishing 40th to Streelman’s 51st at the RSM Classic.

For all those reasons, I’d play Griffin all the way up to -115 in this matchup and think +105 is a steal.