When I questioned one baseball lifer about where all the offense has gone, apparently transfixed by one deadly dull game at that moment, he responded with two words: Angel Hernandez.
OK, on that particular night, the devilish Angel was the solitary culprit in Philadelphia, expanding the strike zone to Bucks County via a season-high 19 fallacious strike calls.
The result was a 1-0 sleeper of the kind that’s becoming much too common. But the reality is, the issues go way, way beyond the umpire we love to hate.
The Dead Ball Era appears to be back, in fact.
Let’s hope it lasts only a year. Or less if we are lucky.
Baseball knows it has a problem, and that’s why changes are coming next year — and why they continue to work on it. In the meantime, we hear, “It’s early,” while fingers stay crossed. The hope is things will get better as hitters adjust, pitching staffs decrease (14 pitchers is the limit starting May 2) and weather improves.
Night after night, we witness great pitching, immaculate D and an utter lack of hitting. There are signs we could be getting back to the unmentionable 1968 season — a season saved only by the memory of Denny McLain, who became the last pitcher to surpass 30 victories, and Bob Gibson, whose 1.12 ERA may never be surpassed. Unfortunately, history like that won’t occur this season, the year of the anonymous reliever.
A crackdown on sticky stuff and the addition of the DH for 15 more teams was supposed to beat back the doldrums.
No such luck.
There are too many reasons scoring has been sent back to the 1960s, the most obvious being a baseball purposely altered to avoid another season like 2019, when nearly everyone turned power hitter and the game devolved into a nine-inning Home Run Derby.
“We’re not using the [Titleist] Pro V1’s anymore,” one longtime MLB coach noted.
The current ball, engineered to be less hard and less bouncy and have more drag than in 2019, is the most obvious cause for home runs to decrease a whopping 27 percent and runs to be down to exactly eight per game, from 9.19 last year. But the ball is just one of many potential reasons hitters are failing. The current .231 overall batting average is actually six points lower than that dreaded 1968 season, which inspired one of the biggest changes ever — the lowering of the mound.
Baseball constantly adjusts, and big changes are coming next year. We expect to see shifts banned (thank goodness!). One exec estimates 80 percent of baseball folks are anxious to see them outlawed, with the plan for two infielders on either side of second (though drawing lines to keep fielders farther away from second is being discussed). Also coming: bigger bases, a pitch clock and perhaps pitching-staff limits.
The game, often ranging lately from dreary to downright dull, may naturally evolve in a positive way, one coach predicts. Once the realization that not everyone is a home run threat sinks in, maybe most batters will finally curtail that hideous launch angle and aim for contact. Just maybe the long forgotten stolen base and hit-and-run play will be reintroduced.
For now, there’s a long list of reasons why 2022 looks like a “transitional” year of the pitcher. The theories are many …
The short spring: Pitchers are always ahead of hitters early, and a four-week training period hurt hitters. Some greats are still warming up. Carlos Correa has a .577 OPS, Nelson Cruz .522, Giancarlo Stanton .535, Mookie Betts .539 and Joey Votto .467.
The young, live-arms, 15-man pitching staffs: Starters are going as hard as they can, knowing they have as many as 10 relievers in reserve. “Guys you never heard of are coming out of the woodwork throwing 98,” one exec noted.
The hitting gurus and analytics: Old-school folks don’t get why 20-somethings with no MLB experience — or as one detractor put it, “nerds, who always think the best way to score runs is hit homers” — are hired to counsel MLB lineups. Both old- and new-school folks agree on this however: Analytics are way more valuable for pitchers than hitters It’s the nature of the game, pitchers are proactive and hitters reactive.
The ball returning to the 2006-18 era may actually turn out to be a plus. “We’re back to a time when you had your home-run hitters, and you had the rest of the guys,” the former coach noted.
For now emphasis on the long ball and launch angle is producing strikeouts and flyouts. But if your non-homer hitters start aiming for contact, the game improves.
The humidor: The aim of the universal humidor (all 30 teams are using it this year, up from 10) is uniformity, a worthy goal. But for now, experts see less bounce, especially in dreary weather.
The weather: It hasn’t exactly been optimal. Crummy weather weighs on the moribund ball.
The ball: This is very likely the big one. The Home Run Committee, comprised of many scientists, recommended adjustments in the COR (coefficient of restitution), set to the midpoint, and an increase in drag following 2019, when utility infielders were regularly going oppo-taco. Plus, there are variables we may never know, or understand — it even has been suggested that a cow’s diet may affect the balls, which is something few have pondered, or wish to.
The ball may be deadly, but the K rate is maybe the bigger problem. And, as one exec pointed out, “That is not the ball!”
It’s the approach. It’s the unending train of hard-throwing relievers. It’s the weather. It’s the truncated spring. Possibly, it’s even inexperienced coaches. Whatever it is, we are not witnessing the prettiest of seasons so far.
