The Mexico Open statistical modeling strategy has been shared and it’s now time to dive into some plays.
Based on the results of my model, I make Jon Rahm a justifiable favorite and actually show him quite a few spots ahead of his nearest challenger on the odds board. For that reason alone, I’ll be steering clear of the outright market.
That said, I have found tons of value in various derivative markets and have settled on the following three players for my top derivative bets this week.
All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Best Bet #1 – Gary Woodland Top 20 Finish (+115)
Woodland posted a missed cut in his most recent event (The Masters), but his prior form was excellent.
In five starts before heading to Augusta National, the 2019 U.S. Open winner posted three top 10’s, four top 25’s and only a single missed cut, a result that was largely dictated by poor tee times at the PLAYERS.
A large portion of that success can be attributed to Woodland’s approach numbers as he’s gained strokes on the field in five straight and six of his last seven prior to the Masters.
Even if the missed cut concerns you, Woodland is a player whose game should translate well this week in Mexico. He’s 11th in the field in driving distance, sixth in strokes-gained: approach and sixth in bogey avoidance across his last 36 rounds. Just in the last 12 rounds, Woodland is first in the field in SG: approach.
Overall, Woodland shows up no worse than 10th in any of my 12-, 24-, 36- or 50-round models, so I believe this price is an absolute steal. In fact, Woodland sits in the top-five of all my 50-, 75- and 100-round models.
Combine those trends with his recent form and I would play this market up to -105.
Best Bet #2 – Sebastian Munoz Top-20 Finish (+170)
Don’t look now, but the normally unpredictable Munoz has seemingly found steady form of late.
The Columbian has now made five cuts in a row and has gained strokes tee-to-green in all five of those events. Plus, across the last 50 rounds, Munoz ranks 7th in the field in SG: T2G, 11th in SG: ball striking and 19th in SG: approach, per fantasynational.com.
He’s also demonstrated an ability to post above-average metrics with mid- to long-irons as he’s fourth in proximity between 175 and 200 yards over the last 36 rounds and second overall in the same category over the last 24 rounds.
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In terms of his placement in my various models, there’s a lot to like about Munoz. He’s fifth in the field in both my 12- and 24-round models before dropping only two spots to seventh in the 36-round model. The one concern with Munoz is his bogey avoidance number across his last 24 rounds (he’s 86th in the field there). However, he’s 15th in the field in the same category across the last 12 rounds.
Lastly, Munoz owns a top-tier finish at a comparable course this season. Last November, he was third at the RSM classic, another coastal setup. Assuming this week proves to be a birdie-fest, expect Munoz, who sits fifth in opportunities gained over the last 36 rounds, to continue his positive run of results.
Best Bet #3 – Austin Smotherman Top-40 Finish (+115)
This is easily the biggest modeling discrepancy of the week for me, as Smotherman rates out quite highly for me.
Across the last 36 rounds, the PGA Tour rookie ranks behind only Jon Rahm overall. Plus, he’s no worse than 29th in the field in any of the five measured categories. Most impressively, Smotherman is a top-20 player in the field field in driving distance, SG: approach, opportunities gained and proximity: 175-200 yards.
Just in his last 24 measured rounds, Smotherman ranks out inside the top-10 in SG: approach (4th), opportunities gained (9th) and proximity: 175-200 yards (4th). He’s also a player that does well on coastal tracks as he was 33rd at Pebble Beach and 40th at the RSM Classic.
The SMU product has also demonstrated he’s capable of handling lengthy course setups. At the Farmers Insurance Open – played at Torrey Pines, another 7400+ yard course – Smotherman posted his best finish of the season (a T11).
For all those reasons, I think Smotherman is live to beat that finish this week in a (relatively) weak field and would play his top-40 price at -125 or better.