Having outlined our statistical modeling approach to the Zurich Classic, it’s now time to dive into the betting markets and share some best bets.
We begin as we always do with the derivative plays. Given only the top-33 teams and ties will make the weekend, the options are somewhat limited as compared to a traditional stroke-play event.
Even with those restrictions in place, I still managed to identify three teams with value in certain markets. So without further delay, here are my best derivative bets for the Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana.
Best Bets #1 – Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele Top-5 Finish (+180)
Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook
This pair enters as pre-tournament favorites, a designation that is warranted based on my statistical model.
Across the last 50 qualifying rounds, Cantlay and Schauffele average a 5th-place team rating while their combined rankings in a 36-model average 3.5 before dropping to eighth in the 24-round model. Schauffele enters the event first in both the 36- and 50-round models, while Cantlay’s best individual ranking is 6th in the 36-round model.
Further, just in terms of the 36-round model, both players are inside the top-16 in the field in five of a possible six categories and possess decent history at this event. The pair finished T11 at the 2021 Zurich Classic, their first appearance as a team that the event.
But there’s another angle with this team that could potentially get overlooked. Both players had great success in last year’s Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits, another long Dye design with similar traits to TPC Louisiana. Further, in terms of his last 50 rounds on Dye designs, Cantlay ranks first in the field in SG: Total (Schauffele is a less-than-ideal 46th).
However, I’m not concerned about that Schauffele ranking. Given he’ll be playing with his buddy – heck, these two even ventured out on vacation together – I think this team will be a force in New Orleans. Expect them to improve on last year’s finish as they contend for a victory.
Best Bet #2 – Tyrrell Hatton/Danny Willett Top-20 Finish (+100)
Odds via BetMGM
Some bettors may be turned off by this team after Hatton’s Augusta antics, but this teams ranks out consistently well in my model.
The two Englishmen have an average model ranking of 24.5 in my 24- and 50-round models while they have a combined average ranking of 25th in my 36-round model. Plus, it’s not as if one player ranks very highly to balance out his teammate – both Hatton and Willett are no worse than 30th individually in both the 24- and 36-round models while Hatton places 31st in the 50-round model (Willett is 18th to somewhat balance him out).
Further, both players have posted decent results of late in their underlying statistical categories. Hatton has gained strokes on the field in four of his last five qualifying events while Willett has done the same in six straight PGA Tour events.
And although Hatton struggled on the weekend at Augusta, I’m encouraged by Willett’s play at that event (12th-place finish, 1st in the field in SG: putting).
This team has also played well at the 2021 Zurich Classic. They posted a T8 finish and played both weekend rounds under par in their first appearance at this event. Given these players seemingly complement each other’s games, expect another strong outing for the Brits in Louisiana.
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Best Bet #3 – Justin Rose/Henrik Stenson Top-20 Finish (+175)
Odds via BetMGM
This team is like a fine wine in my statistical model – they just get better with age.
A 38.5 average rating in the 24-round model definitely gives me some pause, but Rose and Stenson rank 15th on average in the 36-round model and carry an 8.5 average rating in the 50-round model. In the latter model, each player is 6th or better in the field in both SG: approach and SG: T2G.
I’m further encouraged by the fact Rose and Stenson have demonstrated an ability to knock shots close from lengthy approaches. Across their last 50 qualifying rounds on courses longer than 7400 yards, both rank inside the top-10 in proximity from 200+ yards and no worse the 28th in the field in proximity from 175-200 yards (Stenson 12th, Rose 28th).
Additionally, the two Brits also rank out very well in terms of their recent rounds on Dye designs. Across their last 12 qualifying rounds on Dye courses longer than 7400 yards, both are inside the top-20 in terms of SG: total (Rose 4th, Stenson 20th).
Add in this team was T11 at the 2021 Zurich Classic and that Rose won this event back when it was a stroke-play format and I expect a strong showing from this team.