Having broken down our favourite derivative plays for the RBC Heritage, it’s now time to shift our attention to the matchups.
While in one case I’m going against the recommendation of my model, I’m of the belief the following two matchup bets are of the strongest value of the options available. Plus, backers are getting two players who tend to play well on Dye designs and have a good history at this event, so the positives do outweigh the negatives.
So without further distraction, here are my best matchup bets for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links.
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Best Bet #1 – Brian Harman (-120) over Denny McCarthy,
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Harman is widely known to be a Pete Dye-design whisperer and I believe he’s capable of contending this weekend.
Although he actually ranks behind McCarthy in my statistical model, there are positives counter-balancing that fact. For example, Harman was fifth at the Valspar Championship, another 7,200-yard course. Plus, he’s finished inside the top-30 at the RBC Heritage in four of his last five appearances.
Plus, he’s second in the field in strokes-gained: total over his last 24 rounds on Dye designs, while McCarthy is 55th in the same category. If you further specify to the last 24 rounds on Dye designs of 7200 yards or fewer, the gap between the two players widens (Harman fifth, McCarthy 65th).
Lastly, just in terms of both players’ approach play on Dye designs of 7200 yards or fewer, Harman owns a 60-spot advantage (49th vs. 109th in the field).
And even though my model doesn’t rate him particularly highly, there are still positives to draw from that aspect. Harman ranks third in the field in SG: ARG and is 28th or better in fairways gained and three-putt avoidance.
Given the course history, I’m willing to overlook this and back Harman to eclipse McCarthy, who has lost strokes on approach in two of his last three appearances at Harbour Town.
Best Bet #2 – Si Woo Kim (-110) vs. Chris Kirk
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Both of these players rank inside the top-25 of my 24-round model, but Si Woo Kim is much higher across the board
Across the last 24 rounds, the South Korean is third overall in my model verses 23rd for Kirk. However, over the last 36 rounds, Kim ranks 14th while Kirk drops all the way to 49th.
Plus, much like Harman, the South Korea international has played very well on short Dye designs. Across the last 24 rounds, Kim is 14th in SG: total on such courses while Kirk ranks 53rd in the same category.
The course history advantage belongs to Kim, too, as he owns two top-15 finishes in five appearances at the RBC Heritage. Although Kirk placed seventh last year, that marked his first top-25 finish in nine tries at Harbour Town. Further, Kirk has lost strokes on approach in two of his last three appearances in South Carolina.
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On the flip-side, Kim has gained strokes on approach in two straight appearances at Harbour Town in which he’s made the cut, something he’s accomplished in 11 straight events. Finally, he’s fifth in the field in SG: ARG over the last 24 rounds, so we know he’s capable of getting himself out of trouble.
This should prove a close matchup, but expect Kim to come out on top.