The final four teams in this year’s Champions League will be decided Wednesday as quarterfinal play concludes this week.
One team – Liverpool – has virtually secured its spot in the penultimate round after handing Benfica a 3-1 defeat in the opening leg. But, the remaining three ties are still up for grabs.
With that in mind, here are my two best bets for the second legs of the quarterfinals. All odds are subject to change and are reflective at the time of writing.
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Best Bet #1 – Chelsea Draw, No Bet (-104) vs. Real Madrid
Real Madrid fleeced the Blues 3-1 in the opening leg at Stamford Bridge, but I believe there are positives to take from that fixture for Chelsea.
The 2021 Champions League victors outshot its opponent 20-8, had more touches in the penalty area (24-8), and generated more shot-creating actions (32-11) than Real Madrid, per fbref.com. Additionally, the sides were level on big scoring chances and Chelsea won the expected goal battle in the second half (0.92-0.78) despite losing the half 1-0, per fotmob.com.
Of further encouragement is the fact Chelsea seemingly rediscovered some positive form over the weekend. In its 6-0 victory at Southampton, Chelsea created 4.4 expected goals, conceded only 0.5, and won the big scoring chances battle 9-1.
Plus, Real Madrid will be facing a notable absence in defense: Eder Militao. Without the Brazil international in the lineup, Los Blancos are allowing 0.78 expected goals per 90 more than with him on the pitch.
FanDuel has Chelsea to win with a tie resulting in a push set at -104.
Additionally, Real Madrid has drastically overperformed its underlying metrics recently. In its last six matches, manager Carlo Ancelotti’s side owns a +6 goal differential, but only a +1.3 expected goal differential. That trend is also indicative of Real’s Champions League performance as it holds a +14 goal differential through nine matches, but only a +5.3 xGDiff.
Although I’m not sure Chelsea can make up a two-goal deficit, back it to get a result at the Bernabeu.
Best Bet #2 – Bayern Munich/Villarreal Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-106)
Villarreal emerged from the first leg with a 1-0 home victory, but the underlying metrics suggest this match should have featured more goals.
Both teams combined for 3.1 expected goals while also combining for three big scoring chances and 34 total shots, per fotmob.com. Additionally, Bayern and Villarreal combined for 63 penalty area touches, including 39 from the Bavarian outfit. That is the highest total for Bayern in the knockout round and the second-largest output in all nine Bayern Champions League fixtures this campaign.
Further, Bayern Munich is far superior offensively at home, so I expect it to dominate. In 19 Bundesliga + UCL fixtures, the perennial German champions average 2.73 expected goals per 90 minutes. In 19 road Bundesliga + UCL fixtures this season, that average drops to 2.45 xG/90 minutes. Just in four home UCL fixtures, manager Julian Nagelsmann’s side has created 3.18 xG/90.
This one-game parlay can be bet at BetMGM.
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But, this is simultaneously a Villarreal side that knows how to generate scoring chances. Through nine UCL fixtures, manager Unai Emery’s side has generated at least one expected goal in eight and the fourth-most big scoring chances of the eight remaining sides.
Given the Spanish outfit has only been held goalless in one Champions League fixture this season, expect production from both sides in a high-scoring contest.