We’ve outlined our modeling strategy for the RBC Heritage, and now it’s time to make some bets.
As is custom, we’ll begin with the derivative bets. This weekend, I found value on two top-20s and one top-40, all of which feature plus-money payouts. Plus, in addition to fitting my model quite well, the following three players all have good track records at this event.
So without further ado, here are my three best derivative bets for the RBC Heritage. All odds are subject to change and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 – Daniel Berger Top-20 Finish (+130), BetMGM
Berger is coming off a disappointing weekend at Augusta National, but now he finds himself at a course where he’s performed well.
Berger was 13th here in 2021 after posting a third-place finish in 2020 at Harbour Town Golf Links. Plus, he gained at least two strokes in approach on the field in those years, including a +5.5 output in 2021. Berger also has good history at correlated courses to Harbour Town. He owns two top-10 finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a top-10 finish at the Sony Open last year, both featuring courses that correlate strongly with Harbour Town.
In terms of my statistical model, Berger ranks out quite highly in a few round models. He’s second in both my 24- and 36-round models and third overall in my 50-round model. Plus, the Ryder Cup representative sits first in SG: approach in my 12-round model and second in the same category across his last 24 rounds.
Further, he’s second in SG: Par 4s over the last 24 rounds and is no worse than 23rd in both SG: Par 5s and Fairways Gained. The only real concern with Berger is that he’s 44th in the field in three-putt avoidance over the last 36 rounds, but I’m hopeful his approach numbers will offset that weakness.
For all those reasons, I believe Berger should be priced closer to +100 for a top-20 finish, so you’re getting some value here. As a side note, I don’t hate Berger’s top-10 price (+300) and wouldn’t fault anyone who wants to go bolder with the American.
Best Bet #2 – Russell Henley Top-20 Finish (+150), BetMGM
This price is downright confusing to me as I believe Henley is primed for a very good finish in South Carolina.
Let’s hope we get the Henley who shot a Sunday 70 at Augusta to rescue a top-30 finish instead of the Henley that went 73-74-76 in the opening three rounds. But the good news for bettors is that Henley loves this course. He was ninth here in 2021, his second top-10 finish in eight appearances at the RBC Heritage.
Although there are a few missed cuts sprinkled in, one reassuring factor is that Henley has gained strokes on approach in five of eight appearances at this event. Plus, Henley ranks first in the field in SG: Approach in both my 24- and 36-round models.
But that’s not the only thing to like about Henley from a modeling perspective. In my 36-round model, Henley ranks second in three-putt avoidance, fifth in SG: Par 5s and eighth in SG: Par 4s. He’s also 16th in fairways gained, so this course should line up well for him.
Finally, the last aspect I’m considering is that Henley strongest putting surface is Bermuda, the type of grass featured at Harbour Town. Entering this event, Henley is gaining +0.362 strokes/round on Bermuda greens, so expect a lot of birdies and a strong finish for Henley this week.
Best Bet #3 – Kevin Streelman Top-40 Finish (+125), Fanduel Sportsbook
Casual bettors may not be familiar with Streelman, but he’s someone that comes up very highly in a few models for me.
Even though he possesses the 28th-best odds to win the event this week, Streelman ranks fourth in the field in my 36-round model and 18th in the field in my 24-round model. In terms of the former, that’s largely due to Streelman’s consistency in key categories. He’s fourth in the field in SG: Par 5s over the last 36 rounds and ranks inside the top-25 in SG: approach (21st), fairways gained (22nd) and SG: Par 4s (17th).
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Plus, Streelman arrives at Harbour Town with strong recent form and good course history here. In his last three events — the Valero Texas Open, the Valspar Championship and the PLAYERS championship — Streelman posted a top-25 finish in all three events. Further, he was 33rd at this event last year and posted two top-10 finishes in 2018 and 2019. Streelman also owns two additional top-20 finishes in 2012 and 2013.
Further, Streelman ranks fourth on the PGA Tour this year in driving accuracy and was 37th on tour last year in accuracy, so I’m not concerned about the American getting himself in trouble off the tee.
Much like Berger, my projections make this price closer to +100 or even -105, so I think you’re getting a ton of value on Streelman to post another solid finish.