Tiger Woods made it official on Tuesday morning. The five-time Masters winner will tee off at Augusta National for the 24th time in his illustrious career. Not surprisingly, Woods’ confirmation that he will tee off on Thursday ignited a ton of action at the betting window.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Woods’ odds to win the 2022 Masters sit between +3500 and +7500. Tiger’s true odds — remember, he hasn’t played on the PGA TOUR since he was injured in a car crash last February — are probably much longer than even the high-water price of 75/1, but bookmakers weren’t born yesterday. They know that they can post basically any price on the Big Cat and still write a ton of tickets, so they’ll impose a “Tiger Tax.” In fact, DraftKings, which was the worst price on Woods at 35/1, reported that Tiger was the most popular bet in the outright market. People want to bet Tiger, even at bad numbers.
And who can blame them? Sure, long-term success in betting will always come down to making +EV (positive expected value) decisions and you won’t give yourself much of a chance to win over the long haul if you consistently bet into bad numbers, but there are always exceptions to every rule and betting on Tiger at the Masters is one of those times.
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If you’re a bettor who doesn’t like to stray off the beaten +EV path, you already know the case against betting on Tiger. He hasn’t played in over a year because he was badly injured in a car crash, the Masters field is one of the strongest of the year and his odds don’t reflect either of those factors. Put it this way, does Tiger have a better chance to win than Paul Casey, whose average odds are around +6300, or Billy Horschel, who is sitting at 100/1 at multiple shops? The answer is probably not.
It was a similar situation back in 2019, when Tiger went off as one of the favorites to win the Masters at 14/1. It’s not exactly apples to apples since Woods was playing here and there before traveling to Augusta and was not all that far removed from a win at the TOUR Championship the previous fall. Even so, a bet on Tiger at 14/1 was still considered a “sucker’s bet” back then. In reality, Woods should not have been priced as one of the tournament favorites, but bookmakers had to prepare for the onslaught of Tiger money that was coming, so they slashed his odds to mitigate risk.
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But it turns out that the only suckers for the 2019 Masters were the punters who wanted to bet Tiger thumbed their nose at the odds. Woods’ iconic victory three years ago smashed bookies around the world and there were plenty of bettors with a serious case of FOMO in the aftermath because they went with their head over their heart.
That’s why Tiger at the Masters is one of the rare situations in betting where you can turn off the logic inside your head and just get caught up in the moment. Should you still consider the basic best practices in betting like shopping for the best number? Absolutely.
The likeliest outcome of Tiger at the 2022 Masters is that he doesn’t win and the sportsbooks clean up. But there is a world where Woods does contend at Augusta. He’s the best golfer in the history of the game and has won at Augusta five times. Course history trumps all metrics around these parts and Tiger has played this course 24 times competitively over the last two-plus decades. Can he win? He said he can. Is he likely to win? You know the answer to that one, too.
The Tiger money is going to keep flowing all week, setting up a potentially beautiful scenario where Tiger — and the thousands of people who bet on him to win — have the sportsbooks shaking in their boots on Sunday. And should that happen bettors — even the most cold-hearted, professional ones — need to consider the real crux of this dilemma: What is the price of sitting on the sidelines should the unthinkable happen — again.