The Mets might have been the busiest team in baseball this offseason.
First there was a protracted general manager search that ended with Billy Eppler’s hiring in November. Buck Showalter’s arrival as manager occurred a month later. Somewhere in between the team found time to acquire players, signing Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar just before the lockout arrived on Dec. 2.
Once the gates to spring training opened, further reinforcements arrived in Chris Bassitt and Adam Ottavino, for the rotation and bullpen, respectively.
After five straight seasons missing the playoffs the Mets appear equipped for October baseball. The caveat: It’s a veteran group with lots of miles on the odometer. The first hit came last week, with Jacob deGrom’s stress reaction on his scapula that will sideline him for a significant stretch to begin the season. Depth will be tested. But on the surface at least, the Mets look better prepared this season for the injuries that will test their mettle.
For $285 million in payroll, owner Steve Cohen has a team that could either win the World Series or rival some of the colossal disappointments in franchise history. A deeper look into these win-now Mets:
Mets essentials
Most important hitter: Francisco Lindor’s contract extension, worth $341 million over 10 seasons, is about to start. Simply, the Mets need Lindor to revert to the form last seen from him in 2019, when he posted a .854 OPS. Lindor has actually regressed in each season since 2018, when he reached his peak with Cleveland.
Last season, Lindor started slowly and was just beginning to emerge when he went on the injured list in July with an oblique strain. He was strong over the final month — highlighted by a three-homer game against the Yankees — and finished with a mediocre .230/.322/.412 slash line with 20 homers and 63 RBIs. A revival is needed or Lindor will again hear boos at Citi Field.
Most important pitcher: The Mets’ season started plummeting last year once Jacob deGrom hit the injured list to begin the second half. To that point, the ace right-hander was having a season for the ages, with a 1.08 ERA in 15 starts. Now it’s likely the Mets won’t have him for at least the first two months of the season.
Even with Max Scherzer’s arrival, if the Mets are going to have a season that results in plentiful October baseball, they will need deGrom back for a big chunk, healthy and performing at his standard level. Maybe that means mixing in more off-speed pitches instead of going full throttle. DeGrom has certainly got the arsenal to succeed without going max-effort with his fastball. If he needs a carrot to chase, there is an opt-out in his contract after this season that he has previously indicated he intends to exercise.
Will have a bigger year than expected: J.D. Davis has become something of a forgotten man after a hand injury sidelined him for much of last season and then affected his productivity upon his return. But Davis still has a sweet swing and could provide juice from the DH spot and backing up at third base. Even in what was deemed a down year — mostly because of the injuries — Davis produced an .820 OPS last season.
Most likely to disappoint: Robinson Cano is coming off a second PED suspension — this one cost him all of last season. He’s 39 years old and already has much of the fan base turned against him, as a reminder of the trade that sent top prospect Jarred Kelenic to Seattle before the 2019 season, plus Cano’s PED infractions.
Cano is still owed $40 million by the Mets over the next two seasons, so he will receive an opportunity to show he can still contribute. The best hope is he can take 350 at-bats as a part-time second baseman/DH and provide pop off the bench. The Mets have Jeff McNeil to play second base and Dominic Smith as a lefty DH option, so Cano won’t just be rolled out every day if he isn’t producing.
Key call-up: Tylor Megill helped save the Mets’ rotation last season and will likely be an important arm again this year. Whether it’s filling in for deGrom early in the season or taking another rotation spot later, the Mets need him.
The right-hander owned a 3.21 ERA after 11 starts last season, but innings buildup — he easily established a career high in that category — may have derailed him over the final six weeks of the season. He finished with a 4.52 ERA and reached the 130-innings plateau, between the minors and majors. His previous high was 71 ²/₃ innings in 2019. Megill has been throwing a cutter this spring in an attempt to keep left-handed batters honest.
Biggest managerial decision: Over the years Buck Showalter has earned a reputation as a manager skilled in handling the bullpen. The Mets have several talented arms in the bullpen this season, but it will be Showalter’s job to assemble the pieces.
Edwin Diaz, Trevor May, Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo and Drew Smith have the liveliest arms among the relievers. But can the Mets find a dependable lefty to replace Aaron Loup, who helped carry the bullpen last season? Trevor Williams also factors into the mix as somebody who could be used multiple innings if needed. Showalter’s job will be to find the right spots for his big arms and ensure they aren’t overtaxed.
Don’t be surprised if: Tomas Nido splits time behind the plate with James McCann this season or becomes the starting catcher altogether. Nido has improved offensively in recent seasons and his pitch-framing skills remain superb.
McCann was largely a disappointment in the first season of a four-year contract worth $40.6 million. Offensively, he never got on track, and back discomfort landed him on the injured list.
Sure to make fans grumble: The Mets are banking heavily on Brandon Nimmo to anchor the outfield. But with his penchant for injuries, Nimmo also presents a risk. If he needs an extended stay on the injured list, a large segment of fans will undoubtedly wonder why the team didn’t re-sign Michael Conforto. The Mets also have veteran legs in Starling Marte and Mark Canha and would prefer not to need Smith or McNeil to play the outfield for an extended stretch.
Will make the playoffs if: DeGrom returns from the IL and combines with Scherzer for at least 45 starts.
Will miss the playoffs if: The front office is searching the scrap heap for arms by June and last year’s underachievers in the lineup (led by Lindor) haven’t gotten their acts together.
Injury that would hurt the most: They have already found it. If the Mets have any kind of aura, it’s from deGrom standing on the mound every fifth day.
Playing the field
First base: Pete Alonso was the Mets’ most dependable offensive player last season. He not only led the Mets in homers with 37, but also managed to avoid a pronounced slump.
Numbers of note included a maximum exit velocity of 118.4 mph, which ranked in MLB’s 99th percentile last season, according to Statcast. Alonso ranked in the 89th percentile with a 14.8 percent barreled ball rate. Defensively, he remains committed to improvement and was respectable last season — as measured by his plus-one in the outs above average category. Dominic Smith is the better defensive player at first base, but Alonso dislikes the idea of becoming a full-time DH and it probably makes sense to keep him happy.
Second base: Jeff McNeil missed more than a month on the IL with a hamstring strain last season and never really got going offensively. The tone for his 2021 season may have been set in early May, when Francisco Lindor grabbed him by the throat and pinned him to the wall in the tunnel connecting to the dugout, following an argument spurred by McNeil’s disregard for defensive positioning in the shift, which led to confusion.
The Mets need better than the .251/.319/.360 slash line that McNeil brought to the lineup last season. McNeil can also shift to the outfield and DH as needed, allowing Robinson Cano to play second base.
Shortstop: Lindor will attempt to pull a Carlos Beltran and get his Mets career on track in Year 2. Given the shortstops the Mets could have signed in the offseason (Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Trevor Story, among others) if they hadn’t been locked into Lindor, a rebound season is necessary from the former All-Star.
Even with a brutal two months to start the season, Lindor finished with a 101 OPS-plus, which suggests he was slightly above league average offensively. Defensively, he remains an elite player capable of winning a Gold Glove.
Third base: After Jonathan Villar and J.D. Davis split the position for much of last season, the Mets signed Eduardo Escobar to a two-year contract worth $20 million. The switch-hitting Escobar split last season between the Diamondbacks and Brewers and finished with a .253/.314/.472 slash line with 28 homers and 90 RBIs.
Buck Showalter will still have the option of using Davis at the position, as needed. But Davis’ defense has been a question mark in recent seasons, even as his offensive skills remain strong. Last season, he missed most of the first half with a torn ligament in his left hand.
Left field: Mark Canha’s selective nature at the plate should help a lineup that was maybe too much all-or-nothing last season. The veteran outfielder arrived on a two-year contract worth $26 million and is expected to bring a solid right-handed bat to the mix. Last season he hit .231/.358/.387 with 17 homers and 61 RBIs for Oakland, playing all three outfield positions.
The metrics suggest Canha doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, but he ranked in MLB’s 91st percentile in chase rate. A respected clubhouse presence, Canha will bring a professional approach to the lineup.
Center field: Brandon Nimmo’s defense improved so much last season that it appears he will enter the season as a center fielder, even after Starling Marte’s addition over the winter.
Last season Nimmo was plus-four in outs above average as a center fielder, which ranked in MLB’s 86th percentile. The challenge for Nimmo is staying on the field. Last year he played only 92 games because of various ailments. Atop the lineup he gives the Mets energy and an on-base presence. The Mets will take last year’s .292/.401/.437 slash line over a full season.
Right field: The Mets’ quest to improve against left-handed pitching included Marte’s arrival on a four-year contract worth $78 million. The veteran outfielder has won two Gold Gloves in left and also excelled in center, but may get most of his action this season in right, a new position to him.
Speed is among Marte’s biggest assets and his strong arm should prevent runners from taking extra bases. Offensively, Marte hit .305/.405/.451 last season, split between the Marlins and Athletics. He brings another respected presence to the clubhouse.
Catcher: James McCann had a rough first season with the Mets after arriving as a free agent. A solid presence behind the plate, he struggled to a .643 OPS and his metrics tell a similarly bleak story, as he was among MLB’s worst in chasing pitches and strikeout percentage.
The Mets have another option in Tomas Nido, whose pitch framing is among the game’s best and whose steady offensive improvement has increased his value. Nido needs to stay healthy after ailments derailed him in successive seasons.
DH: Few NL teams were more ready for the arrival of the universal DH than the Mets, who have Cano, Smith and Davis as prime options. But also look for Alonso to slide into the role on occasion, giving Smith opportunities to play first base.
Starting pitching: Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt give the Mets two quality arms atop the rotation to start the season. The key will be health and what the Mets get behind that duo from Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker, in particular. Both veterans are coming off surgery and were shaky down the stretch last season.
The 37-year-old Scherzer, who arrived on a three-year contract worth $130 million, should push the remainder of the staff, a contrast to Jacob deGrom’s quieter style. Bassitt, whom the Mets acquired from Oakland at the start of spring training, doesn’t throw a big fastball, but gets plenty of movement on his pitches and could be a nice complement to the others.
Bullpen: Edwin Diaz’s elite stuff has translated into only one superb season in three with the club, and that occurred in pandemic-shortened 2020. The right-hander was strong early last season, but endured a midseason slump and pitched to mixed results later in the year. There are plenty of good arms leading into Diaz, with Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Drew Smith. The Mets acquired lefty Joely Rodriguez in a trade with the Yankees late in camp and hope he can help compensate for Aaron Loup’s departure through free agency.
Bench: Depending on the day, the Mets could have Davis and Smith as pinch-hitting options, providing a nice lefty/righty threat. Don’t overlook Luis Guillorme, who can play multiple spots in the infield and deliver a quality at-bat.
Prediction: 89-73, second place in NL East
The Mets look solid on paper, but it’s hard to pick them ahead of a Braves team that won the World Series last year after winning the division for a fourth straight year. But at the very least the Mets should be a wild-card team.
