Masters betting: Justin Thomas headlines derivative plays

Having outlined our statistical modeling strategy for The Masters, it’s time to dive in and make some picks!

First up is my favorite derivative bets for the week — a top five, two top 20’s and a top 40 – that I believe present the best value of the myriad options available.

The first three such bets I believe are capable of winning, so I won’t fault you for taking an outright position on those players. That said, here are my four favorite derivative bets for 2022’s first major tournament.

Best Bet #1 – Justin Thomas Top-Five Finish (+300), DraftKings Sportsbook

Thomas is my pick to win the event this year and it’s my opinion this is a crazy good price and far superior to his +1200 outright price.

In terms of my 24- and 36-round models, Thomas arrives at Augusta National first in both. He’s ninth or better in what I have rated as the two most important categories – strokes-gained: Par 5’s and SG: Approach – and shows up eighth in bogey avoidance as well across his last 36 registered rounds.

In the 24-round model, he’s 16th or better in the four most important categories and first in the field in bogey avoidance, so he’s entering this tournament well-versed in escaping unforced errors.

Plus, Thomas has a decent history in his last five appearances at this tournament. The Alabama product has finished inside the top-25 in all five starts, including a solo fourth in 2020.

Further, Thomas has strong finishes this year at some correlated courses – sixth at the Genesis Invitational, T20 at the Farmers Insurance Open – and has a potentially unquantifiable advantage this year. You’ll hear it all week, but no one knows Augusta National quite like Jim “Bones” McKay (Thomas’ caddie) and should help his boss enter Sunday in contention.

Best Bet #2 – Matt Fitzpatrick Top-20 Finish (+160), DraftKings Sportsbook

Even though Fitzpatrick has only recorded two top-25 finishes in seven Masters starts, he enters this year’s tournament in outstanding form.

Throw out his performance at a PLAYERS tournament that featured tough weather conditions and Fitzpatrick’s last four tournaments look like this: fifth, ninth, 10th, sixth. Plus, the Englishman has gained strokes tee-to-green in all five starts in 2022 (inclusive of the PLAYERS) and owns a red-hot putter, earning 1.7 strokes on the field in his four non-PLAYERS starts this season.

And just like Thomas, Fitzpatrick has good history at Riviera Country Club, a correlated course to August National. In two starts at the Genesis Invitational, Fitzpatrick has finished fifth (2021) and 30th (2020).

---

Check Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps

• Check out the best sports betting sites
• Download the best sports betting apps

---

In terms of his placement in my model, Fitzpatrick ranks out quite well. He’s second in the 24-round model and fourth in the 36-round model. Most importantly, Fitzpatrick ranks first in the field in terms of SG: Par 5’s in both models and has good history on the four Par 5’s at August (-22 across his last 12 rounds here).

Don’t be surprised if Fitzpatrick’s in contention this year, but I believe he’ll do no worse than 20th.

Best Bet #3 – Sam Burns Top-20 Finish (+150), DraftKings Sportsbook

It’s always nervy placing trust in a Masters rookie, but Burns rates out very highly in my statistical model.

Across the last 36 rounds, Burns shows up third in particular model. He’s also no worse than 15th in all of the 12, 24 and 50 round models. Just in terms of the 36-round model, though, there’s a lot to like about Burns. Although he enters 36th in the field in good drives gained, he’s 11th or better in the field in all of the remaining categories, including seventh in bogey avoidance and 10th in SG: approach.

Plus, although he missed the cut at both events this year, there’s some positive history for Burns at correlated courses. He finished third at the 2021 Genesis Invitational and 18th at the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open. Plus, he was 23rd the prior year at the Genesis.

Given he’s also gained strokes on the field at the Par 5’s in three consecutive events, I expect Augusta National will suit Burns well. He’s also not walking in entirely blind as caddie Travis Perkins has some experience navigating Augusta National with previous clients.

While a Masters debutant hasn’t won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, expect a positive finish from Burns this week.

Best Bet #4 – Tom Hoge Top-40 Finish (+115), Fanduel Sportsbook

Hoge is another Masters rookie, but my statistical model likes him quite a bit.

Hoge enters Augusta National sixth in my 36-round model and seventh overall in my 24-round model. In fact, Hoge is 30th or better in those two models as well as the 50- and 75-round projections.

But, there are a few concerns that lead me to be as cautious as possible with the 2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner. He missed the cut at both the Genesis Invitational and Farmers Insurance Open and, as mentioned, has zero experience at Augusta. Further, bentgrass greens are by far his worst putting surface.

That said, he’s still gaining strokes on the field in rounds on “difficult” course setups and has finished inside the top-40 in 10 of 12 events on the 2022 calendar in which he’s made the cut. Furthermore, in his last five events in which Hoge has made the cut, he’s finished 20th or better in three.

Given Hoge is second in bogey avoidance across the last 36 rounds, an absolute implosion seems unlikely here. He’s also seventh in SG: Approach, so those two stats should help counteract his 49th-placed rating SG: Par 5’s.

While contending is a long shot, I believe you’re getting a steal of a price here. Based on my model, I would play it down to +100.