Golf Picks: Collin Morikawa a fade in best Masters matchup bets
Having shared our favorite derivative bets for The Masters, it’s time to turn our attention to the matchups.
While you won’t see many high payout options in these markets, I’m still seeing a lot of good value amongst the various head-to-head markets.
In the following three cases, there’s at least a 25-spot difference between the players in my model. So, without further delay, here are the head-to-head bets I’m targeting this weekend at Augusta National.
Best Bet #1 – Gary Woodland (-120) over Cameron Young, DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s the case of experience vs. youth and I see Woodland’s experience being the deciding factor in this matchup.
While Masters debutant Cam Young is an admirable scrambler, he doesn’t rate out very well in the remaining four modeling statistics. He’s 41st or worse in all the remaining fur categories, including 60th in the field in strokes-gained: approach over his last 36 rounds.
On the flip-side, Woodland is 25th or better in the field in four of five modeling stats. He’s been a little wayward off the tee recently – 50th in good drives gained over the last 36 rounds – but he can easily make up for that with his record on Par 5’s – 14th in the field in SG: Par 5’s over the last 36 rounds.
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Plus, Woodland has decent history in his last two visits to Augusta National. He’s posted two consecutive made cuts in his last two April Masters and finished inside the top-40 on both occasions. Plus. prior to three consecutive missed cuts in 2015, 2017 and 2018, he posted a 34th and 26th in his first two appearances.
Although Young posted exceptional finishes at some correlated courses, I expect the lightning-quick greens at Augusta will trip him up. As a result, I would play Woodland up to -130.
Best Bet #2 – Viktor Hovland (-135) over Collin Morikawa, BetMGM
Say a prayer that Hovland’s chipping issues don’t come back at Augusta, because if they do he’s in trouble.
That aside, there’s a lot of other positive trends in Hovland’s current game. He arrives at Augusta National 10th overall in my 36-round model and ranks first in the field in strokes-gained: approach. Plus, he’s seventh overall in good drives gained and has posted three top-10 finishes in his last four events.
Meanwhile, my model suggest that over his last 36 rounds, Morikawa has played remarkably average golf. He’s still a top-20 approach player in the field, but he also ranks outside the top-50 in bogey avoidance and scrambling while sitting 39th in strokes-gained: Par 5’s.
Plus, although Hovland finished behind Morikawa at the 2021 Masters, his putting was far superior. For the weekend, Hovland gained +0.37 strokes putting on the field while Morikawa gained only +0.01 strokes, per data-golf.com. Further, Hovland was six shots better than Morikawa on the Par 5’s last year.
With Hovland making fewer mistakes this season, expect the Norwegian to outpace the two-time major winner at this year’s event.
Best Bet #3 – Billy Horschel (-105) over Abraham Ancer, BetMGM
Ancer was the better of the two at the 2021 Masters, but I’ve been very impressed with Billy Horschel lately.
Horschel has made the cut in 12 consecutive events and arrives at Augusta National with four consecutive top-20 finishes. Plus, although his approach numbers haven’t been great (63rd in the field over the last 36 rounds), he’s 21st in the field in SG: Par 5’s. Ancer, on the other hand, is 78th in the field in that category.
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Overall, Horschel comes in 25th in my statistical model while Ancer arrives at Augusta 55th in the field across the last 36 rounds. Shrink the sample size down to the last 12 rounds and the discrepancy further increases (Horschel 5th, Ancer 40th). Most importantly, Horschel ranks eighth in SG: Par 5’s in the 12-round model while Ancer sits 83rd.
Lastly, Horschel has a better finish this season at a correlated course. The Florida alum finished tied for 11th at the Farmers Insurance Open, while Ancer recorded a T39 at the Genesis Invitational.
As a result, I believe Horschel should be a slight favorite in this matchup and would play him up to -120.