Golf picks for Valero Texas Open: Lanto Griffin, Doug Ghim

With less than 24 hours separating golf fanatics from the first Valero Texas Open tee time, I’m here to share one final set of plays.

In case you missed it, I broke down my three favorite derivative bets in yesterday’s column. Now, we recenter and turn to the matchup bets, of which I have two to share.

You won’t see many high-profile names in this column, but I believe these matchups are fairly lopsided in one direction based on my modeling.

So, without further ado, here are my two best matchup bets for the Valero Texas Open. Both are available at BetMGM and odds are reflective at the time of writing.

Best Golf pick #1 – Lanto Griffin (-115) over Alex Smalley

There’s some concern over both players’ recent form – both project outside the top-90 in my 12-round model – but Griffin improves as you increase the sample size.

Across the last 36 rounds, Griffin ranks 30th overall in my model while projecting out 32nd in my 50-round model. Smalley, despite posting a good performance in last week’s Corales Puntacana Championship, projects out 76th and 83rd, respectively, in my 36- and 50-round models.

Plus, Griffin’s results on correlated courses leads me to believe his eye simply suits this setup. This season, he recorded a solo 39th in a strong Genesis Invitational field while posting a sixth-place finish at the Shriners at TPC Summerlin, the strongest course correlation with TPC San Antonio, per datagolf.com.

---

Check Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps

• Check out the best sports betting sites
• Download the best sports betting apps

---

Additionally, Griffin’s past performances at TPC San Antonio add yet another positive layer to this handicap. He hasn’t missed the cut in two appearances at the Valero and improved upon his T58 in 2018 by posting a T34 in last year’s event.

On the flip-side, Smalley has no experience at TPC San Antonio and lost strokes on the field in two straight events at correlated courses (the Genesis and Shriners).

Lastly, history tells us that Griffin has a big advantage in terms of his putting. Per fantasynational.com, Griffin’s best putting surface is Bermuda, the green type at TPC San Antonio. On average, he’s gaining +0.26 strokes putting/round on that surface. While that surface is also Smalley’s best, he’s only gaining +0.07 strokes/round on the field.

For all those reasons, I’d play Griffin all the way up to -130.

Best Golf pick #2 – Doug Ghim (-105) over K.H. Lee

Just like Griffin vs. Smalley, this matchup represents a big modeling discrepancy for me and I’m somewhat surprised Ghim is an underdog.

In my 36-round model, Ghim ranks out fourth overall, behind only Hideki Matsuyama, Jhonattan Vegas, and Rory McIlroy. Plus, he’s no worse than 27th in the field in terms of SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green while simultaneously ranking fifth in both Par 5 scoring: 550-600 yards and proximity to the hole: 150-175 yards.

Meanwhile, K.H. Lee is 110th in my 36-round model and doesn’t crack the top-100 in any of my 12, 24, or 50-round models. On the flip-side, Ghim is 10th or better in the eighth, 36 and 50, and 75-round models.

The worry here is that Ghim’s worst putting surface is Bermuda and, prior to a sixth-place finish at the PLAYERS, he missed the cut three straight times. However, there’s good history at TPC San Antonio (Ghim finished T34 in 2021) to go along with the fact Ghim posted a T40 at TPC Summerlin last year.

As for Lee, he has only finished inside the top-40 twice in his last seven outings and brings zero course experience to TPC San Antonio. He does own a solo 14th at TPC Summerlin last year, but I think Ghim’s experience at this course helps neutralize that.

As a result, I’d be willing to play Ghim up to -120 and think he could be in for a good performance in Texas.