Our three-day wait is over and March Madness 2022 NCAA Tournament action is set to resume Thursday.
First overall seed Gonzaga will lead off the four-game slate Thursday as it gets set to battle Arkansas, while fellow No. 1 seed Arizona is also in action Thursday as it readies to face Houston.
Texas Tech-Duke and Villanova-Michigan round out the Thursday slate, but which wagering angles should catch bettors’ attention?
Without further delay, here are my two best bets for Thursday’s slate of games.
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Best Bet #1 – Arizona/Houston under 146.5 points
These teams like to play completely different styles, but I think the game script will go more in Houston’s favor.
The Wildcats entered the tournament playing at the third-fastest pace, while the Cougars play at the ninth-slowest pace. But, I believe Houston is well-suited to counter one of Arizona’s biggest strengths: its transition offense. Per hoop-math.com, Arizona owns the best effective field goal percentage in transition among tournament teams, but Houston is 11th in the corresponding defensive category.
Further, Houston has already demonstrated it can limit good transition offenses. While certainly not on the level of Arizona, both UAB and Illinois rank in the top-85 nationally in terms of effective field goal percentage in transition. On the flip-side, Arizona has yet to face a top-170 transition defense so far in this tournament.
Beyond that facet of the game, there are further reasons to back an under here. Both teams play very well defensively – both are in the top half of the remaining 16 teams in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com – and are both solid rebounding teams – both rank in the top-eight amongst the entire field in true rebounding percentage, per sports-reference.com.
That tells me there won’t be a lot of second-chance points in this game and, when you consider that neither team takes a significant portion of shots from deep – Houston is 24th in three-point attempt rate while Arizona is 43rd – I believe the under is the right call here.
Best Bet #2 – Arkansas Team Total Under 72.5 Points vs. Gonzaga
I was thoroughly unimpressed with Arkansas in the second round against New Mexico State and think their offensive woes continue against the top overall seed.
The worry here for me is that Gonzaga is so far ahead that the Razorbacks get a bunch of garbage-time points, but there are definite signs informing this play. First is that among the 16 remaining teams in the tournament, Arkansas owns the third-worst adjusted offensive efficiency, per kenpom.com. On the flip-side, Gonzaga owns the third-best adjusted defensive efficiency.
Plus, Arkansas’s 77.6 offensive rating against New Mexico State was its worst output all season. The Razorbacks also aren’t generating many second-chance opportunities – its two tournament games have seen bottom-five offensive rebounding rates for the season.
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Lastly, Arkansas’s best offensive angle will likely be neutralized well by Gonzaga. Head coach Erik Musselman’s squad sits 114th nationally in field-goal percentage at the rim, while the Bulldogs are fourth-best nationally in the corresponding defensive category, per hoop-math.com.
Given Arkansas doesn’t attempt nor convert on a lot of three-point attempts, I expect its offense will struggle mightily against Gonzaga barring a complete blowout.