Despite a wild first day of upsets that included the betting favorite in the East (Kentucky), chalk held to form in the top half of the region. Saint Mary’s and UCLA had different paths to their first-round victories, but both successfully avoided potential upsets.
Saint Mary’s thrashed Indiana by 29 points, using a 34-5 run to end the first half and begin the second half. The Hoosiers offense was taken out of sorts by the Gaels stellar defense and four players scored in double figures for Saint Mary’s in the blowout win.
Akron gave UCLA a very difficult challenge and led by as many as eight points late in the second half. The Bruins needed a late 15-2 run to pull ahead from that point and win yet another close NCAA Tournament game. This crew has consistently found late-game postseason magic in the last two seasons, winning three games in last year’s tournament by one possession or in overtime.
The market opened UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite and it was immediately bet down to 3 with Gaels money hitting the market opener. We’re even seeing 2.5s pop at some places as of Friday afternoon, so there’s signs that the market is expecting this game to be closer than the opener indicated.
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Randy Bennett is one of the best in-game coaches in the country, and trying to prepare for the Saint Mary’s offense and style of play in just one day of lead time is quite difficult.
The total is set at just 126.5, but this could be a sneaky potential Over game because there are some paths to offensive efficiency for both offenses.
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The Bruins are about a point or two better than the Gaels, but three or more wasn’t showing Saint Mary’s enough respect in the market.
The play: Saint Mary’s, +2.5.