San Diego State, upset-hungry Vermont today’s best March Madness bets
The NCAA Tournament is already underway, but Action Network college basketball analyst BJ Cunningham has two best bets for the evening slate.
The first contest Cunningham is choosing to target? The 8/9 matchup in the Midwest between San Diego State and Creighton, who are two-and-a-half-point underdogs.
For Cunningham, he’s showing good value on the favored San Diego State, mostly because of its strong defensive play.
“You cannot score quickly against the Aztecs…and Creighton wants to play fast and wants to score quickly,” Cunningham explains.
Additionally, Cunningham believes there’s another key mismatch for San Diego State to exploit here: its ability to turn opponents over. San Diego State turns teams over at the 29th-highest rate in the country, while Creighton is outside the top-300 in offensive turnover rate.
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As a result, Cunningham expects the Aztecs to move on and is happy to lay the two-and-a-half points with the Mountain West representative.
Cunningham’s second play comes in a West region matchup between the No. 4 seed Arkansas Razorbacks and No. 13 seed Vermont Catamounts.
For Cunningham, he believes the Razorbacks, who arrive as a consensus five-point favorite, could be on upset alert.
“Vermont is the number one team in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, which is huge against Arkansas, who crashes the glass at an incredibly high rate,” Cunningham says.
Further, Vermont is a top-25 defense from inside the arc. Given Arkansas doesn’t attempt a lot of three-pointers, Cunningham expects the Catamounts’ defense will cause problems for the Razorbacks.
If Vermont can slow the game down, Cunningham expects it will cover as five-point underdogs and has a chance to advance to the weekend.