The Madness has arrived.
With the First Four games complete, the field of 64 is set for when the First Round begins today. Three No. 1 seeds will take the court Thursday – Gonzaga, Baylor and Kansas – while blue bloods Kentucky and UCLA also feature on the card.
But which wagers should bettors target on the first day of action? Without further delay, here are my three best bets across the whole day. Lines are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
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No. 8 San Diego State Aztecs (-2) vs. No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
Defense is king in March Madness, and we as bettors know this Aztecs side is capable of suffocating defensive play.
Per kenpom.com, the Mountain West representative sits second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Further, it posted above-average opponent points/game totals in seven of its last 10 games entering this matchup with Creighton.
The Bluejays aren’t a particularly efficient offense – they sit 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency entering the tournament – and are missing a key piece in point guard Ryan Nembhard for this contest.
That said, there’s definitely concern associated with this San Diego State offense. It’s heavily reliant on senior guard Matt Bradley to score the lion’s share of points and owns the sixth-worst adjusted offensive efficiency in the tournament.
A lackluster performance from Bradley and the Aztec offense could mean an early exit, but I’m going to place trust in its defense. After all, Creighton owns the fourth-worst turnover percentage in the tournament and should struggle against the SDSU defense.
For those reasons, lay the points with San Diego State or play its moneyline up to -130.
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No. 7 Murray State (-2.5) vs. No. 10 San Francisco (+100)
The key element of this handicap for me is that San Francisco will be without big man Yauhen Massalski, its third-leading scorer and leading rebounder.
That gives a huge advantage to a Murray State side that is 19th in the field in true shooting percentage and 14th in effective field-goal percentage, per sports-reference.com.
Further, the Racers already enter this matchup as a top-90 side nationally in field-goal percentage at the rim, per hoop-math.com. Without Massalski inside, I believe that gives an extended advantage to the favored Racers, as the Dons tend to focus on limiting opponents’ three-point field goals.
Seeing as the Racers rank 295th nationally in 3-point attempt rate per game, this should be business as usual for the Ohio Valley conference champions.
Further, the Racers sit 26th in the field in adjusted efficiency margin (per kenpom.com). And although it doesn’t play in the strongest conference nationally, I believe there’s something to be said about the fact head coach Matt McMahon’s squad lost only two games all season.
I expect this line to continue to drift upward as tipoff approaches, so I’m happy to buy in at the current number. Against a side that relies heavily on shots from deep – the Dons attempt the third-most three-point shots among tournament teams – expect Murray State to maneuver into the weekend.