Everyone loves a good upset come March, but which specific upsets have bettors targeted so far?
The Action Network PRO Report designates five factors — sharp money, big money, PRO systems, model edge and expert picks — to help distinguish certain plays from others available.
In order to help bettors cash some big tickets, here are some of the underdog spreads that are catching the most meaningful action ahead of the NCAA Tournament first round.
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Bet #1 – #6 Colorado State Rams (+1.5) vs. #11 Michigan Wolverines
The Rams opened as two-and-a-half point underdogs to the lower-seeded Wolverines, but we’ve tracked sharp money that has seen it move to the current number and from +110 to +105 on the moneyline.
In addition to receiving sharp money, big money bets have also come in on Colorado State. As of this writing, it has received only 35 percent of spread bets, but 68 percent of the money.
Lastly, two other factors trigger Colorado State as a solid underdog: a pro system and expert pick. The “NCAA Tournament Slow-Paced Dogs” system, which applies here, has a 60 percent win rate and 17 percent ROI, while one Action Network college hoops expert is backing the Rams.
Pick #2 – #13 Vermont Catamounts Spread (+5.5) vs. #4 Arkansas Razorbacks
Bookmakers opened the Catamounts at +6.5, but sharp action has since seen its spread drop a full point to +5.5.
As of this writing, this is a rare occasion where all five factors listed above apply to Vermont. It has received 45 percent of bets but 81 percent of the money, the third-highest money percentage on Thursday, while also satisfying one PRO system: NCAA Tournament Contrarian.
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Further, Action Network model projections suggest Vermont’s spread should be closer to +3 in this contest while one Action Network college hoops expert is already backing Vermont.
As it stands, the Vermont moneyline is sitting at +190, down from nearly +230 at the opening.
Pick #3 – #14 Colgate Raiders (+7) vs. #3 Wisconsin Badgers
The 2022 Patriot League champions opened at +8.5 against Wisconsin, but we’ve tracked some big money bets that have seen Colgate move to the current number.
As it stands, the Raiders have received 67 percent of spread bets, but 94 percent of the money. Additionally, Action Network model projections suggest this number is still inflated as those power ratings suggest Colgate should be closer to +5.5.
Lastly, two of our top college basketball experts are riding with the underdog, satisfying three of five factors for the Raiders.