TruTV will have no problem drawing eyeballs to this titillating First Four showdown on Tuesday. It’s perennial power meets data-driven darling, folks!
Indiana snaps what felt like a never-ending six-year NCAA Tournament drought with an appearance in Dayton. After a blistering run through the Big Ten Tournament, spoiled by Jordan Bohannon’s buzzer-beating heave, the Hoosiers thought they had played their way safely to the field.
On the other side, Wyoming coach Jeff Linder and his analytic acumen are more or less just thrilled to be here. Wyoming notched its first at-large berth since 2002, a testament to the astonishing job Linder did in his second year at the helm. Despite losing five of their final nine games, the Cowboys’ body of work impressed the committee enough to secure a spot in the field.
The X factor in this matchup is Indiana’s Race Thompson. His defensive versatility is paramount, especially as a potential neutralizer to Hunter Maldonado. Thompson is agile enough to chase Maldonado around the perimeter, but, above all, he’s an imposing presence in the post, capable of deterring the Maldonado backdown.
On paper, Indiana’s inherent strengths are well-suited to defend Wyoming’s bread and butter. However, the Hoosiers have shown a propensity to lose shooters on the perimeter at times this year, too. These exact warts reappeared in Iowa’s furious comeback in the Big Ten semifinals, as the Hawkeyes’ pristine ball movement ripped Indiana’s perimeter coverage to shreds late in the game. Losing shooters is not a recipe for success against Wyoming.
Linder’s tactical brilliance will force Indiana coach Mike Woodson to make some tough decisions, but the Hoosiers’ innate DNA — interior physicality and toughness — should give them the upper hand from the jump.
The play: Indiana, -3.5.