We’ve made it halfway through our region breakdowns for the NCAA Tournament and now focus in on the South Region.
The PAC-12 champion Arizona Wildcats are the top seed in the region as Villanova, Tennessee and Illinois round out the top four in the section.
Arizona is the favorite to reach the national semifinal at +120, and there’s a big dropoff from there. Villanova, the second choice, comes in at +400, while Tennessee arrives at +550.
But how should bettors approach the futures market in this region? Here are my picks for the best value, odds to avoid and pick to advance to New Orleans.
Value Play – #5 Houston Cougars (+550)
Similarly to our evaluation of Texas Tech in the West region, the calling card of this Houston team is its ability to defend.
Among NCAA Tournament teams, it owns the ninth-best adjusted defensive efficiency and the fourth-best adjusted efficiency margin, both per kenpom.com. This is also a Houston team that takes care of the basketball and doesn’t allow many second chance opportunities. The Cougars sit 16th in the field in turnover percentage and seventh overall in true rebounding percentage, per sports-reference.com.
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Plus, even though Houston doesn’t play in the strongest conference, I think there’s something to be said about the fact it has only three losses this calendar year, two of which came against the Memphis Tigers.
The path to the regional final could be tricky — even first-round foe UAB has the potential to cause problems for the Cougars — but I like the way head coach Kelvin Sampson’s squad matches up with top-seed Arizona. The Wildcats play the third-quickest pace among tournament teams, so a slowed-down game (the way Houston likes to play) could give Houston an advantage.
From there, I rate Houston pretty similarly with presumed regional final foes Villanova or Tennessee. For those reasons, I think there’s value to be had with this number.
Steer Clear – #2 Villanova (+400)
Put head coach Jay Wright’s team in any other region and I think it’s worth a look. But not here.
The path to New Orleans is littered with high-quality opponents for a side I believe simultaneously has a high ceiling and low floor. If Loyola (IL) get past Ohio State in the first round, it could cause massive fits for the Wildcats. The Ramblers own the seventh-best true shooting percentage and fifth-best effective field goal percentage among tournament teams, per sports-reference.com.
Villanova is decent at defending the arc — it ranks 19th in the field in three-point field percentage allowed — but there’s a chance the Ramblers get hot and shoot their way to the regional semifinal.
Even if the region goes as I expect and Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee and Houston are the regional semifinalists, I would have Wright’s squad power-rated third in that group. Given the discrepancy between that feeling and Villanova’s odds, I have no choice but to pass here.
Pick to Advance – #5 Houston (+550)
Let’s be bold here shall we?
Ultimately, it’s my belief that whoever wins a hypothetical regional semifinal between Arizona and Houston will find itself in Houston, but there’s too many positives to ignore with the Cougars.
Beyond what was stated earlier, the Houston roster is comprised of experienced pieces. Two starters and four of seven key contributors return from last year’s Final Four team. Plus, since Kelvin Sampson took over, the Cougars have never failed to reach the regional semifinals.
Lastly, six of the last eight teams to reach the Final Four had top-five adjusted efficiency margins according to kenpom.com. From this region, only two teams satisfy that requirement — Arizona and Houston.
I would need +150 to consider backing the top-seed, so instead I’ll take a higher price and consider a hedge should those teams meet.