After a day to digest the bracket and regions, the first official day of NCAA Tournament play is upon us.
Two first four matchups fill out the card today – Texas Southern vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Indiana vs. Wyoming – with another pair tomorrow.
The winner of the former contest earns the right to get blown out by Kansas, while the winner of the latter will travel to face St. Mary’s.
But how should bettors approach these two games? Without further delay, here are my best bets for each matchup Tuesday night.
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Game 1 – No. 16 Texas Southern (-3.5, 135.5) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M Corpus-Christi
From where I’m sitting, this game is a genuine toss-up on the side.
Texas Southern owns a more impressive resume for the season – headlined by a non-conference victory against Florida – but the TAMU-CC transition offense could cause some fits for the Tigers.
So, rather than picking a side in this contest, I’m looking to the total instead. Both of these teams like to get out and play a quick pace. Both sit in the top-20 in terms of overall pace – Corpus-Christi 5th, Texas Southern 20th – which could lead to a hefty amount of points in this contest.
Further, TAMU-CC has proven capable of creating turnovers that lead to opportunities in transition. Among teams in the tournament, it ranks eighth in forced turnover percentage.
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By going up against a Texas Southern team that sits second-to-last among tournament teams in turnover percentage, expect a swath of opportunities for a Corpus-Christi squad that also gets to the charity stripe at a high rate (eighth among tournament teams in free throw attempts/field goal attempt, per Sports Reference).
However, this Texas Southern squad arrives with a distinct size advantage down low and should generate high-quality second-chance opportunities. The Tigers are 23rd in the field in terms of total rebound percentage and 16th in offensive rebounding percentage.
If head coach Johnny Jones’ team can exploit its size advantage down low, I think you’ll see a strong offense performance from the favorites. For those reasons, my best bet in this game is Over 135.5 points.
Game #2 – No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers (-3.5, 132.5) vs. No. 12 Wyoming Cowboys
This looks like a strong matchup for the Hoosiers, but I’m not so sure it goes that way.
Indiana ranks ahead of Wyoming in both adjusted efficiency margin and adjusted defensive efficiency (both per kenpom.com), but there’s one glaring mismatch that gives me concern with the favorites.
Head coach Mike Woodson’s team registered the 12th-most personal fouls among teams in the tournament and Wyoming has proven it can get it done at the line. The Cowboys shoot nearly 73 percent from the free-throw line and own the 12th-best free throw rate per field goal attempt among tournament teams.
If Wyoming can expose that weakness for Indiana, this could be a tight contest that could be won by either side. As a result, I once again find myself looking to the total.
The one thing we know about both these teams is that they can’t do much damage from beyond the arc. Per hoop-math.com, Indiana sits 172nd nationally in three-point field goal percentage while Wyoming is 212th in the same category. Rather, these are teams that like to work the ball down low and try to finish at the rim.
Further, both sides do well to clean up the defensive glass – both are 45th or better nationally in defensive rebounding rate – so unlike the first game, I don’t expect a lot of second chance points here.
With that in mind, I’m looking to under 132.5 points as my bet for this contest.