Most casual college basketball fans and recreational bettors spend the next two days focusing on their brackets, trying to pinpoint their sleepers, upsets, Final Four teams and eventual national champion.
But remember, NCAA Tournament odds are up and open for betting, meaning the market’s sharpest bettors are already tearing these games apart by jumping on the best early values while the masses worry about filling out their brackets.
With this in mind, I turned to our college basketball betting tools to pinpoint the four games already landing professional betting action.
Vermont vs. Arkansas (Thurs.)
Early betting trends were already setting this game up as classic case of sharps vs. squares.
Sixty-three percent of spread tickets have landed on Arkansas to this point, but every other data point suggests that wiseguys have already taken a position on Vermont.
First, despite attracting just 37 percent of the spread action, 74 percent of the actual money wagered has come in on the Catamounts, suggesting that the biggest bets are backing the underdogs.
Second, Action Labs’ Bet Signals, which track and report professional betting action in real-time, are reporting two steam moves on Vermont.
Steam refers to sudden, uniform line movement across the market that is often the result of bettors with the respect and resources to move odds getting down on the same side of the same game at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.
And finally, line movement doesn’t lie, so it’s not at all surprising to see that Vermont has dropped from +6.5 to between +5.5 and +5, depending on the sportsbook, as oddsmaker react to the influx of smart money.
Akron vs. UCLA (Thurs.)
Pro and recreation bettors are aligned on Akron vs. UCLA. Eighty-five percent of bets on the spread have come in on the Zips while wiseguys have steamed the underdogs twice already.
With bettors loading up on Akron, this line has dipped from +15.5 to +13.5 across the market.
With that said, FanDuel was still hanging the Zips at +14, so be sure to visit the Action Network’s College Basketball Live Odds Page to find the best available line before getting down on the matchup.
Iowa State vs. LSU (Fri.)
While pro bettors are eyeing underdogs in the games above, they’ve instead taken a position on the Over for Iowa State vs. LSU.
This total opened at 123.5 at DraftKings and three separate waves of sharp over action has driven this number up to a consensus of 126, with some shops already at 126.5 as well.
As of the time of writing, BetMGM was offering this number at 125.5, which is by far the best out there.
Colgate vs. Wisconsin (Fri.)
Once again, we have bettors of all skill levels and experience lining up on the same side of an NCAA Tournament game.
Colgate opened as a 9.5-point underdog at BetMGM and the combination of sharp and public action hitting the Raiders has moved this line down to a consensus of +7.5, with PointsBet adjusting a half-point further to +7.
If you do plan on tailing the 87 percent of bettors taking the points in this matchup, don’t settle for +7 and ensure you’re locking in Colgate at the widely available number of +7.5.
