With the Phoenix Suns far ahead of the rest of the NBA, Monty Williams has been a heavy betting favorite for NBA Coach of the Year since before the All-Star break. He’s beloved by the media and ready for his come-up after leading the Suns to the NBA Finals last summer.
But are we sure Williams is a lock to win the award? A lot can change over the final month, and perception is not always reality in awards circles. Just because bettors have leaned heavily in Williams’s direction for so long doesn’t mean the voters will feel the same way.
Entering Friday, the Suns were eight wins ahead of the next best team in the league standings even without an MVP candidate, ranked top five in both offense and defense. So will Williams (-350 at BetMGM) win it — and if not, then who?
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Erik Spoelstra (8/1 at FOX Bet): If it’s not Williams, maybe it’ll be the coach of the league’s other conference leader. It’s pretty remarkable that the Heat are 44-23, on pace for a 55-win season, even after all the injuries this team has faced. Miami lost 20 games from Jimmy Butler, 25 from Bam Adebayo and 17 from Kyle Lowry. And yet, the Heat are leading the East.
Would you believe Spoelstra has never won Coach of the Year? That’s pretty surprising for a guy that was just named among the top-15 coaches in league history. Could this be the perfect time to give Spo a career award?
Billy Donovan (14/1 at PointsBet): Donovan looked like a strong COY candidate for much of the season. The Bulls were 26-10 in early January, but that’s when the injuries started mounting. Chicago is just 14-16 since. It doesn’t help that Chicago ranks in the bottom 10 in Defensive Rating.
Donovan does fit the pattern, though. The Bulls are on pace to win 49 games, well ahead of their 42.5-win Over/Under and far ahead of last year’s 31-41 record. If Chicago closes with a flourish and gets back into the top two spots in the East, Donovan could be in play. He’s at +1400 at PointsBet.
Ime Udoka (50/1 at FOX Bet): If you’re looking for a long shot, maybe you go back to the well on the guy we bet on before the season. It took the Celtics a while to hit their stride, but no team in the league is as hot as Boston right now.
The Celtics have won 15 of their past 17 and sport the best defense in the league — thanks in part to a Udoka move, shifting Robert Williams out of the paint as a devastating help defender. Boston should finish the season as the league’s top defense, and Udoka is already getting credit for that.
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Three of the past five COY winners were first-year coaches, so that favors Udoka, too.
J.B. Bickerstaff (4/1 at PointsBet): No team in the NBA has surprised more than the Cavaliers. Cleveland is 38-27, on pace for 48 wins and was the first team to cash its Over — and the Cavs did that back on Jan. 17. Heck, there’s still a chance the Cavs could double their 26.5 total.
Injuries are piling up, and the Cavs have a rough closing stretch. But if Bickerstaff’s guys beat the Bulls and Bucks for the division, he’d be a slam dunk COY candidate at 4/1. You can get nearly double that price on the Cavs to win the division at +750, so that might be the better bet if you expect a big finish.
Taylor Jenkins (13/2 at BetMGM and DraftKings): Is it possible we’ve been eyeing the wrong favorite all along? Taylor Jenkins and the Grizzlies check all the boxes.
Memphis wasn’t even supposed to be a playoff team last year and won two play-in games, including a shocker over the Warriors. The Grizzlies finished the year 38-34, but that turned out to be just the beginning. This year’s Grizz improved to 45-22, good for second best in the entire NBA.
Ja Morant is a heavy favorite to win Most Improved Player, and the Grizzlies are on pace for 55 wins. They’ve already smashed their 41.5 Over/Under and should beat it by double digits with ease.
Jenkins’ Grizzlies have overachieved three straight seasons. Is this the year he finally gets his due?