We have finally reached conference tournament season — the NEC Tournament began Monday night — but for the sake of this early-week pace report, we are going to focus on two regular-season games and only one postseason affair.
Some games will be fast-on-fast, others will be slow-on-slow and others have external factors that could decide the Over/Under.
Providence vs. Villanova (Tues.)
Providence tempo: 287th
Villanova tempo: 345th
Which Providence team will show up at Villanova to end regular-season play?
The Friars captured the regular-season Big East title for the first time in program history against Creighton on Saturday night, causing a court-storming celebration.
Coach Ed Cooley must now make a decision to play for revenge or get prepared for the Big East Tournament.
Villanova has excelled on offense over the past month (above NCAA average) despite its recent loss to UConn.
The pace of this game will be the slowest on the slate, as a closer look at adjusted tempo has Providence at 295th and Villanova 346th offensively.
However, these two teams have the highest point distribution from the free-throw line in the Big East, with Villanova owning the best mark at 85 percent.
While an Under is an autoplay on this game, free throws may get involved late. With a projected total of 135, I will be looking for a first-half Under as Providence comes in on a hangover.
Toledo vs. Buffalo (Tues.)
Toledo tempo: 64th
Buffalo tempo: 20th
Only the top eight teams in the MAC make the conference tournament, but both Toledo and Buffalo are clearly in the hunt for the top seed.
These are two of the fastest teams in the nation, with a Jan. 25 game totaling 161 points. Toledo has been the far superior offensive team over the past month, while Buffalo has won nine consecutive conference games.
The Rockets and Bulls both have an offensive strategy that consists of attacking the rim, as they rank first and fourth respectively on distribution of points from the interior. Toledo does field the best interior defense in MAC play, though.
While the pace of this game will be furious, neither of these teams specializes in getting to the free-throw line (both outside the top 225 nationally).
With a KenPom projection at 159 and expected steam in the market, there could be value in taking an Under on two teams that do not shoot from the perimeter, or from the free-throw line.
Presbyterian vs. Campbell (Wed.)
Presbyterian tempo: 331st
Campbell tempo: 346th
The first round of the Big South Conference Tournament tips off with No. 6 Campbell taking on No. 11 Presbyterian.
The Blue Hose finished conference play with just four victories, one of them coming over Campbell at home on Feb. 2 in a contest that totaled 122 points.
Not only is Campbell near the bottom of Division I hoops in getting to the free throw line, but it is making only 66 percent of those shots, ranking 337th in the nation.
Both teams look to score points at the rim, but transition offense continues to plague ball handlers. Presbyterian is second in Big South play in defensive steal rate, making this a great spot to back the Blue Hose.
As for the projected KenPom total of 124, this game will be played in Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte. Teams playing in larger arenas or football stadiums for the first time can have issues with depth perception, especially in their opening games. Taking the Under will be the look for the last Big South Tournament matchup on Wednesday.
