With just two weeks left in the regular season, the regular-season title race in the Atlantic 10 is tightening up. Davidson has been in first place most of the way, but VCU, Dayton, and St. Bonaventure are all on winning streaks. Can the Wildcats hold on to secure the regular-season title and top seed in the conference tournament?
Davidson
After falling behind at the half four times in a six-game stretch, Davidson finally ran into trouble at Rhode Island. The Wildcats were upset by the Rams, 72-65, on Feb. 12, but rebounded last week with wins over Duquense and Saint Louis. The 79-58 win over Saint Louis was arguably Davidson best defensive performance of the season.
Davidson improved to 22-4 and 12-2 in conference. It will have to handle its business on the court, but it’s in excellent position to win the regular-season title.
The Wildcats’ next game is Wednesday at Duquense before they return home to face Fordham and George Mason. Davidson will be favored to win all three, and if it does, it will clinch the outright regular-season title before their March 5 matchup at Dayton.
At this point, the +550 future on Davidson to win the regular-season title I recommended in an earlier report remains in excellent shape. The biggest threat may be VCU, which would potentially set up a win-win situation.
VCU
The Rams have been one of the best defensive teams in the country all season, ranking fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Rams also have been good offensively of late, averaging 69.7 points over their last nine games, up from 62.6 in their first 16 games. They’re are 8-1 in that stretch and have won their last five games.
VCU is up to 11-3 in the conference and a game back of Davidson for first place. The Rams close out the regular season vs. George Mason on Wednesday, at Massachusetts, vs. St. Bonaventure, and at Saint Louis. It will be favored to win three out of those four.
For anyone wanting to hedge a Davidson future, VCU to win the regular-season title is +260 on DraftKings. It’s not a great price considering the current circumstances. However, the real value would have been if you grabbed VCU to win the league at 15/1 on DraftKings back in January. Anyone with Davidson at +550 and VCU at 15/1 is sitting pretty.
Dayton
The Flyers also are 11-3 in the conference and own a 30-point drubbing of VCU in Richmond as part of a current 7-1 stretch.
Dayton closes out the regular season vs. UMass, at La Salle, at Richmond, and vs. Davidson. KenPom has Dayton favored to win all four. However, winning at Richmond will not be easy before it gets to Davidson.
If the Flyers win the first three, they could have the chance to win the regular-season title on their home floor depending on how Davidson fares. Dayton is +425 to win the regular season on DraftKings. I would recommend a slight position there.
St. Bonaventure
The Bonnies, 9-4 in conference on the strength of a five-game winning streak, are still mathematically alive, but will need a ton of help to win the regular-season title.
They can carry the momentum from their winning streak into the conference tournament, where they will be a tough out. I will be keeping an eye on VCU and St. Bonaventure when the conference tournament odds are released. The Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament will tip off March 9 in Washington, D.C.