In the Monday edition of Bet Smart, Action Network’s director of predictive analytics recommended Cooper Kupp’s longest reception Over 28.5 yards, Kevin Huber’s longest punt Over 52.5 yards and the Rams to call the first timeout. Here are five more prop bets he likes for Super Bowl 2022:
Joe Burrow Under 12.5 rush yards (-114)
We know Burrow can scramble when needed, but he hasn’t rushed much this year coming off his ACL tear from last season. The Year 2 quarterback has a median of 6 rushing yards a game this season and has cleared that number in just three of 19 games. The Rams play a ton of zone, making it tougher for a quarterback to scramble and making me like this Under even more. Bet to: 11.5.
Ja’Marr Chase more rush yards than Cooper Kupp (-160)
The Bengals have given Chase rushing attempts in each of their three playoff games and are always trying to find ways to get the ball in his hands. Kupp has an easy enough time getting targets that the Rams don’t really give him rush attempts, making this line appealing. Kupp has only two rushing attempts of more than 2 yards all season, whereas Chase has seven — with four of those coming in the playoffs.
Bet to: -180.
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Joe Mixon first rush attempt Under 3.5 yards (-120)
I always love these props for the Super Bowl. Most running backs average 4-plus rushing yards per attempt — that’s skewed by longer runs, but the median is closer to 3 or 3.5 yards. For this prop, I have Mixon going under 3.5 yards on his first rush attempt 60 percent of the time.
His first attempt won’t fool the Rams’ defense, which is ranked fifth in Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Or it might even be a second- or third-and-short situation on which he just needs a yard. There are a lot of paths to winning this.
Bet to: -135.
Any player to rush for 100+ yards? No (-225)
This Super Bowl involves two very good passing attacks that have struggled to rush the ball lately. My simulations give Mixon and Cam Akers around a 12 percent chance each of going over 100 yards. Mixon has topped 100 yards in three games this season — all three times in games in which the Bengals either won by 20-plus points or faced a bottom-five run defense. The Rams’ defense ranks fifth in DVOA against the run.
Neither quarterback has a chance of hitting 100 rush yards and the only way backups Samaje Perine or Sony Michel have a shot at this would be if Mixon or Akers were to go down. I’m giving this around a 78 percent chance of hitting and a fair line for this should be closer to -350.
Bet to: -275.
Shortest field goal made Over 27.5 yards (-110)
Obviously if either kicker gets a field goal inside 27 yards, this prop is toast. That’s why we would want to find the chances of either kicker getting an attempt inside 27 yards. Combined, 12.5 percent of Evan McPherson and Matt Gay’s attempts have been inside of 27 yards this season. Looking at the field-goals-made market (Under 3.5 is -140 at time of writing), it’s safe to say the most likely number of field goals made is three. Double check with your specific book rules, but if no field goal is made this prop will be voided.
Bet to: -130.