Home teams in CAPS:
Los Angeles Rams (+3) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS; Over 48.5
For a matchup between two teams that played last week, there’s quite a difference in rest here. The Buccaneers trounced the Eagles at home last Sunday in the midafternoon. The Rams had to go late into Monday night to finish off the Cardinals, then have to deal with the cross-country travel.
The teams met in Week 3 in Los Angeles, and the Rams won, 34-24, at pick ’em. Even though they had back-to-back road losses at San Francisco and Green Bay at midseason, the Rams are 7-2 away from SoFi Stadium, a nice overall body of work.
The main problem for Bucs backers is that Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen and right tackle Tristan Wirfs are nursing ankle injuries. This would be a problem, of course, against the likes of Aaron Donald. A pass rush from the interior defensive line has always been the recipe for slowing down Tom Brady, who was sacked four times last week by the otherwise out-to-lunch Eagles.
Tampa Bay’s defense also will have problems trying to contain Cooper Kupp, and Sean McVay makes good use of his other weapons — Cam Akers, Odell Beckham Jr. and Tyler Higbie. Matthew Stafford had some Detroit Lions-like moments in the closing weeks of the season. If he can keep it together, the Rams can knock the champs off the throne.
Rams, 30-26
Buffalo Bills (+1.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, Over 53.5
Talk about a perfect game in football! Last week, not counting kneel-downs at the end of each half, the Bills had seven drives and scored seven touchdowns. Not just against anybody. Against Bill Belichick! It was unbelievable to watch it play out. And it was all legit. Except for the final drive, which was 38 yards after a 52-yard Micah Hyde punt return, the Bills’ scoring marches went 70, 80, 81, 89, 58 and 79 yards.
The spread for this game at first strikes as a bit low, but it’s in line with the two most recent meetings. In last year’s AFC Championship at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs were favored by 2.5 points. Buffalo jumped out to a 9-0 lead, but K.C. took over the game with three touchdowns in 10 minutes in the second quarter. In Week 5 of this season, the Bills won 38-20 as three-point road underdogs. They went on a bit of a roller-coaster ride after that while the Chiefs fixed their defense and surged.
But after the perfect game vs. the Patriots, I’m convinced. This is the Bills’ time.
Bills, 33-27