Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his fourth season with The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.
Saturday: San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
Most people don’t realize this, but despite all the talk about how great Aaron Rodgers is (and how mediocre Jimmy Garoppolo is), the 49ers still average more yards per game (373.8-365.5) and nearly as many points (Packers lead 26.5-25.0). The Packers’ run defense doesn’t rank too badly, but I contend it would be worse except that most teams abandon the run and feel they need to get in a shootout with Rodgers. The 49ers’ running game — whether it’s RB Elijah Mitchell or WR Deebo Samuel helping out — is capable of gashing the Green Bay defense like it did in sweeping the Pack in 2019-20. The Packers did prevail, 30-28, in this year’s Week 3 meeting, but a similar result would also work for our purposes here.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS
When handicapping this matchup, all my stats came up with the Bengals as a short favorite (even after adjusting for Derrick Henry returning), but I wasn’t thrilled with the number being so short when it opened Titans -2.5, Fortunately, it’s been bet through the key number of 3 to +3.5. When taking the whole season into account, I trust Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, etc. (27 ppg) more than Ryan Tannehill, Henry, A.J. Brown, etc. (24.6 ppg) with the two defenses pretty equal allowing around 21 points per game. I really respect Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel, so I don’t expect the Bengals to win in a rout, but I give them a coin-flip chance at the outright upset in a game that should be closer to pick ’em. Getting 3 and the hook is insurance in case it comes down to a field goal.
Last week: 0-2. Steelers (L), Cardinals (L)
Season: 22-16