Tom Brady was shut out for only the third time in his career on Sunday night against the Saints. People will make excuses for Brady whenever he loses a game, and here, the excuse was that he was playing with backups most of the game after Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette exited early with various injuries.
But, those are just excuses. Great players win with what they are given, and on Sunday night Brady couldn’t win. He couldn’t do much of anything with the players he was given. And, we might have just seen his MVP chances slip away. The Bucs finish the season with two games against the Panthers, and the Jets in between, and I’m not sure three weeks of beating up on bad teams is going to win Brady back the MVP against a contested field. Although, he is Tom Brady so he might just win it anyway, you can never really rule that out.
Aaron Rodgers has overtaken Brady as the favorite at most books. He’s 3/2 at BetMGM, just ahead of Brady at +175. Rodgers is putting up an MVP-level season, excluding a Week 1 loss against the same Saints team that beat Brady twice. Losing to the Saints shouldn’t disqualify Brady or Rodgers from winning MVP, but their struggles against a borderline playoff team should be noted. I also think some voters are going to hold Rodgers’ COVID stuff against him when it comes to voting and that might help Brady the most. If the MVP is just the award for the best quarterback in 2021 Rodgers might win, but I’m not convinced he’s going to be voted the MVP.
I’m not sure what to do with Jonathan Taylor at 8/1 at BetMGM, but I do know that’s way too short to bet for a running back to win MVP. Taylor’s numbers (1,518 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns, 19 total) are great, and he definitely deserves consideration with Cooper Kupp for Offensive Player of the Year, but MVP?
I’m not sure those numbers are impressive enough, especially when you consider running back production is a function of the offensive line. But, Taylor is also closing in 2,000 all-purpose yards and 20 touchdowns in a year when the quarterback play around the NFL has not led to a runaway MVP leader.
It’s hard not to give Taylor consideration with his current numbers. If voters are going to be swayed to vote for a non-quarterback MVP, Taylor is a legitimate contender, but you’ve missed your chance to bet him at big odds. He was over 100/1 a few weeks ago, and I couldn’t recommend betting him now at 8/1.
The Chiefs have won seven straight games and Patrick Mahomes’ MVP odds haven’t moved very much and are still 12/1. The Chiefs have the Steelers, followed by back-to-back road games at Cincinnati and Denver to finish the season. If the Chiefs can finish the year with a 10-game win streak and the No. 1 seed, I think Mahomes has just as good a MVP case as Rodgers or Brady when all is said and done.
Kupp was as high as 200/1 for MVP entering the Seahawks game, and is now 30/1 at BetMGM. While I don’t think Kupp is necessarily going to win, he does have a path to the MVP and his season hasn’t been any less impressive than Taylor’s. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Kupp MVP odds continue to shorten if the Rams beat the Vikings this weekend.