VSiN’s college football expert offers his selections for Tuesday’s bowl games.
Potato Bowl: Wyoming (-3, 59.5) vs. Kent State
It will be cool and crisp in Boise for the Potato Bowl between a Wyoming team that plays on the blue turf every other season and a Kent State team that would rather be in a warmer locale. Skies are supposed to be clear and winds are supposed to be tame, so we haven’t seen this total move a lot in the lead-up to the game.
The high total of 59.5 seems to be pretty telling, even though Wyoming is the 3-point favorite. The Cowboys run the football a lot, which keeps the clock moving. This is Wyoming’s highest total of the season by five points. The previous high was a 45-12 win over Ball State back in Week 3. The Cowboys also played a 50-43 shootout against MAC champion Northern Illinois in Week 2 that sailed over the total of 44.
The Cowboys got off to a 4-0 start, but limped to a 6-6 finish. Kent State lost to NIU in that MAC title game, but this is a program that should be highly motivated with only four bowl appearances in program history and just one win. Wyoming, however, is 3-0 ATS in bowl games under Craig Bohl.
Perhaps the most interesting angle to this game is the tempo difference between the two teams. Wyoming was 111th in total number of offensive plays, while Kent State was fourth. Even though Wyoming runs on a high percentage of plays, Kent State still had 107 more rushing attempts.
This could be a tale of two games. Wyoming’s physicality may wear Kent State down in the second half, but I think Kent State’s tempo, which is very hard to replicate, is something that hurts Wyoming early. The elevation could also take its toll with an up-tempo team.
Pick: Kent State on first-half moneyline (+110).
Frisco Bowl: San Diego State vs. UTSA (-3, 49)
Hopefully this one plays out to my expectation because UTSA is one of my favorite bets of the bowl season. The Roadrunners draw a San Diego State team that I’ve been looking to fade a lot throughout the year because of an inept offense and a defense that seemed to be overperforming a bit.
But, before I look at the UTSA offense, how about this defense? The Roadrunners ranked 71st in yards per play at 5.58 ypp allowed. However, UTSA also had to play Western Kentucky twice. The Hilltoppers throw the ball all over creation and had 1,100 passing yards in the two games. In UTSA’s other 11 games, the defense only surrendered 2,179 passing yards. While you can’t just cross off games, WKU and SDSU are absolutely nothing alike. For the season, the Aztecs threw for just 2,018 yards.
Remove those two outliers from the equation and UTSA’s yards per play ranking improves to a rank around the top 30 in the nation. If SDSU had any kind of offensive potency, this hypothetical wouldn’t really matter, but because the Aztecs barely averaged 5.0 ypp, it seems relevant.
The UTSA offense will get a stiff test from the Aztecs defense, but this is a unit that managed over 6.1 ypp. San Diego State did shut down Nevada and Carson Strong, but struggled with Fresno State and Utah State.
UTSA is close to home in Frisco, so there will be a crowd edge in favor of the Roadrunners, who are looking for their first bowl victory in program history. Jeff Traylor seems to be an outstanding head coach and Brady Hoke, who has been mediocre in bowls, hasn’t coached in one since 2013.
Pick: UTSA, -3.