There are only 43 college football games left at the FBS level this season. That means a lot of bettors will be playing catch-up with the basketball season.
One mistake that casual college hoops fans and bettors always make is to assume the big names — the blue-blood programs that get the high-profile freshmen and dominate the headlines — are good. That can be a very dangerous assumption and one that costs you money. It is hard to cite the 2020-21 season in any capacity because of all the hardships and interruptions that COVID-19 caused, but Duke went 13-11. Kentucky was 9-16. Marquette and Indiana had losing seasons. Big names don’t always have big seasons.
Similarly, the teams that were good in the mid-major and low-major conferences are far from guaranteed to be good again. Usually a star player or a major transfer can have so much of an impact in a one-bid league that it can skew the results and skew the perceptions of teams.
Basically, you cannot take anything for granted in college basketball. If you are coming late to the party, evaluate teams for what they are now. Consider their current statistical profile and roster makeup, not what they’ve been in the past. As we know, coaching changes and roster turnover is rampant in college hoops. Don’t just assume the name on the front will be as good as it was. Think about the names on the back and how they’re performing.
One thing you can do, though, is look and see why those prominent programs are struggling.
Florida State
The Seminoles are just 6-4 and lost their ACC opener 63-60 to Syracuse. Florida State also just lost to a pretty mediocre South Carolina team and beat Boston University by one in overtime. For a team that has been in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency each of the last five seasons, the Seminoles just aren’t making enough shots this year. They’re shooting 34.9 percent on 3s and 68.9 percent at the free-throw line.
Roster turnover has been a big reason. The Seminoles aren’t quite as talented and don’t have as many proven scorers. They also don’t have a facilitator like Scottie Barnes. This might just be a down year by Tallahassee standards.
Oregon
The Ducks have been really uncompetitive in some of their losses, including blowouts at the hands of Houston and BYU and a double-digit loss to Saint Mary’s. Dana Altman’s team has also experienced a ton of turnover, losing guys like Chris Duarte, Eugene Omoruyi and LJ Figueroa.
Oregon kept Will Richardson around and surrounded him with transfers such as Jacob Young and De’Vion Harmon. This looks to be a team still trying to jell. Altman’s teams are at their best late in the year, so you might want to follow the Ducks closely for signs of improvement.
Virginia
Playing the style of basketball the Cavaliers employ requires a certain level of offensive efficiency. The pack-line defense is designed to slow down and suffocate the opposition, but the downside risk of playing low-possession games is that the offense has to make a high enough percentage of shots to avoid losing low-scoring games.
Virginia is shooting 30.2 percent from 3. If this continues, it would be the worst such percentage in Tony Bennett’s tenure. As long as the Cavs start making more shots, they’ll be fine, but the margin for error will always be thin playing at that tempo.