One of the fundamental beliefs many successful bowl game handicappers share is that in many games, one team shows up and the other team doesn’t. In these contests, the point spread is generally rendered meaningless, as the game is sometimes so decisive that the favorite bettor never has to worry or the underdog bettor is left wishing he would have chanced it on the moneyline instead.
In bowl games, outright winners are far more successful on point spreads than they are in the regular season. For instance, outright winners covered the spread in 22 of 26 games last bowl season. Six winners were underdogs. The previous season, the winners’ ATS record was 34-6-1. Of those 34 ATS victors, 12 were underdogs.
What I’m hinting at is that moneyline underdogs are typically strong wagers at bowl time. The unfamiliarity of opponents combined with the varying excitement and motivational levels for the teams involved sometimes means these lines are just flat misses. Be sure to take advantage of that aspect in the next few weeks.
Let’s look at some of the more definitive trends of outright winners affecting this bowl season. The first group deals with previous bowl performances and the next details unusual angles in specific bowl series.
Outright winner team trends
Outright winners are …
18-1 ATS in Louisville’s last 19 bowl games.
Five of Louisville’s past seven bowl games have been decided by double-digit margins. The Cardinals lost one as 7-point favorites, and they pulled an upset in another as 14-point ’dogs. Results can be that drastic in bowl games when one team doesn’t come to play. The Cardinals will face Marshall in the New Orleans Bowl.
9-0 ATS in Maryland’s last nine bowl contests.
Maryland is currently a pick ’em with Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl, so either team would necessarily cover with a win.
On a seven-game ATS winning streak in Missouri bowl games.
The Armed Forces Bowl is intriguing, as the line is 3.5 points in favor of Army. In six of the past seven Missouri bowl games, the winner beat the point spread by at least 13 points, not even close to what the oddsmakers thought.
On a streak of 13 straight ATS wins in Ohio State bowl games.
Do you think Utah has a shot at beating Ohio State in the Rose Bowl? The Buckeyes’ recent bowl history suggests they won’t win if it’s close. It’s either OSU decisively or Utah in an upset.
13-0-1 ATS in Mississippi’s past 14 bowl games.
The Baylor-Ole Miss Sugar Bowl line doesn’t leave much wiggle room in the point spread, sitting at -1.5 points for the Bears. This trend figures to see another notch added to the win column. If you like QB Matt Corral and the Rebels, don’t waste your time with a point-spread wager — go all in.
Outright winner bowl trends
Outright winners are …
On a 22-2 ATS surge in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl series.
Usually played in inclement weather, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, Idaho, is a series in which it has been pretty obvious that one team wants to be there more than the other. In most cases it’s the Mountain West team, which is used to playing in that area. With only one of the last nine games being decided by fewer than nine points, it’s a good bet that Wyoming or Kent State will win handily.
19-2-1 ATS in the previous 22 Music City Bowls.
Louisville’s 38-28 upset of Mississippi State as a 5-point ’dog in the 2019 contest continued a trend of point-spread dominance by the winners. Purdue is the ’dog this year. Can the Boilermakers pull the upset, or is favored Tennessee a lock to cover as well as win?
On a 13-0 ATS run in Cheez-It Bowls.
Last year’s 37-34 win by Oklahoma State over Miami snapped a stretch of lopsided games in this series, as the average margin of victory in the previous seven games was 19.4 ppg.
On an 18-0-1 ATS run in the last 19 Cotton Bowls.
This trend will truly be put to the test in 2021, as Alabama is nearly a two-touchdown favorite in the first of the two College Football Playoff semifinals. The average margin of victory in the past six Cotton Bowl games has been 23.2 ppg. Can Cincinnati stay close? If so, give the Bearcats a shot at an upset.
On a 20-0 ATS roll in Citrus Bowl games.
Since 2002, one of the teams has failed to answer the alarm, typically on New Year’s morning. This year’s game pits Kentucky and Iowa. Which will come to play?
27-2 ATS in the past 29 Fiesta Bowl games.
This is the longest-running trend of the bowl series outright angles, as it dates all the way to 1993. There have been 12 outright upsets in that span. You can pretty much count on Notre Dame or Oklahoma State getting the win/cover combo.
