There are sad endings and happy endings. Then there is something in between. There are things that feel good, even if you know it isn’t going to end well. Like eating that extra taco, or making that one last roll in Craps, or checking TikTok before you go to bed.
Or Cam Newton returning to the Panthers. The Madman makes no secret, we are a Panthers fan. (And, no, the singular/plural conflict is not a mistake. The Madman’s chosen pronoun is “we.”) As such, we know it isn’t the 2015 MVP Newton who has returned, not even the 2017 version — which was the last time Newton guided a team to the playoffs.
This Newton still can run hard, at least in short bursts. And that comes in handy at the goal line. But he isn’t a guy we expect to see striding for 20- and 30-yard gains like he once was able to do routinely. At this point, he can barely throw the ball that far.
Which brings us to something that is sort of important for us when rating quarterbacks: the ability to throw. Sure, there are other ways QBs can score in fantasy points, but if you’re a QB who isn’t good at throwing, you probably aren’t going to be a very QB — in real life or fantasy.
Let’s go back to 2020, which is likely closest to the version of Newton the Panthers can expect in this Episode 2. He averaged 17.9 fantasy points a game. That’s OK. That would rank 13th among QBs this season.
This might suggest you can get away with him at QB, at least as a platoon option. But wait a sec. Remember too, the Patriots didn’t have anyone along the lines of Christian McCaffrey on their roster.
The Panthers aren’t just going to use McCaffrey as a decoy, he is going to get touches near the goal line, too — because he also knows how to score. So don’t expect Newton touchdown runs to come as frequently.
There were seven games last season when Newton failed to score at least one rushing TD. In those games, he averaged 14 fantasy points. For perspective, that is less than Sam Darnold averaged this season. Fewer than Mason Rudolph, Tyrod Taylor and Trevor Seimian. Take away Newton’s Week 17, 37.5-point explosion against the walking-dead Jets last year, and that no-rushing-TD average plummets to 10.1 — closing in on Davis Mills and Zach Wilson territory.
So be prepared for wild swings in production if you want to start Newton regularly. And also put other Panthers on your radar. We expect D.J. Moore will see a decline in production — or more accurately, his current decline will maintain and a return to his early-season success is less likely.
Though, on the up side, Newton has historically liked his tight ends, so maybe Tommy Tremble becomes more of a focus.
So sure, Cam returning to the Cats makes me feel good. But it probably won’t do the same for your fantasy team.
BIG WEEKS
Daniel Jones QB, Giants, at Buccaneers (FanDuel $6,900/DraftKings $5,300)
He will have Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney all on the field. Only other time this happened — Week 4 vs. the Saints, his best passing game of the season. And they likely will need to throw, with Bucs angry after Washington stumble.
A.J. Dillon RB, Packers, at Vikings (FD $7,000/DK $6,200)
Just taking this one opportunity to point out the obvious: Dillon should be a default start until Aaron Jones returns. If something changes, we’ll let you know.
Mark Ingram RB, Saints, at Eagles (FD $6,800/DK $5,400)
Alvin Kamara will miss Sunday’s game with a knee injury. That thrust Ingram into the primary role and makes him a solid RB2 option. He got 18 touches last week, and the Eagles are generous to opposing RBs.
Jeff Wilson Jr. RB, 49ers, at Jaguars (FD $5,000/DK $5,100)
Starter Elijah Mitchell is dealing with a broken finger. With Mitchell listed as doubtful, expect a heavier dose of Wilson even if Mitchell does surprisingly play.
SMALL WEAKS
Justin Herbert QB, Chargers, vs. Steelers (FD $7,700/DK $6,700)
Sure, the Steelers are without T.J. Watt, but Herbert’s recent trend is concerning. He has scored fewer than 14 fantasy points in three of his past four games. Now has more games with less than 15 (five) that 20 or better (four).
Saquon Barkley RB, Giants, at Buccaneers (FD $7,000/DK $6,700)
Hasn’t played since Week 6, which qualifies him for “read only” status for his first game back. Likely won’t see a full workload, and will need to catch back up to game speed.
Michael Pittman Jr. WR, Colts, at Bils (FD $6,900/DK $6,100)
The Bills allow 7.4 fewer PPR points to fantasy WRs per week than the average — stingiest in the league — with just three WR touchdown catches allowed all season.
Dawson Knox TE, Bills, vs. Colts (FD $5,600/DK $4,000)
He passes our “read-only” test, having returned from a hand injury last week. But we aren’t fans of his primary matchup vs. Colts LB Darius Leonard.
Fantasy Insanity Daily Duel
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (12 games)
Type: $5 tourney
Top prize: $10K
Pot: $100K
Drew’s Crew
QB – Patrick Mahomes (KC, vs. Dal) $8,300
RB – Ezekiel Elliott (Dal, at KC) $8,500
RB – A.J. Dillon (GB, at Min) $7,000
WR – CeeDee Lamb (Dal, at KC) $8,0000
WR – Tyreek Hill (KC, vs. Dal) $8,500
WR – Hunter Renfrow (LV, vs. Cin) $6,100
TE – Cole Kmet (Chi, vs. Bal) $5,100
Flex – Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF, at Jac) $5,000
DEF – Washington (Was, at Car) $3,500
Wilk’s Warriors
QB – Josh Allen (Buf, vs. Ind) $8,800
RB – D’onta Foreman (Ten, vs. Hou) $6,200
RB – Myles Gaskin (Mia, at NYJ) $6,200
WR – Stefon Diggs (Buf, vs. Ind) $8,100
WR – Davante Adams (GB, at Min)$8,400
WR – Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cle, vs. Det) $5,700
TE – Adam Trautman (NO, at Phi) $4,800
Flex – A.J. Dillon (GB, at Min) $7,000
DEF – Dolphins (Mia, at NYJ) $4,800
Season risked: $82
Season winnings: Jarad $20, Drew $15